MY 2025 MLB Predictions: MVP, Cy Young, ROY
Dishing out detailed picks for the biggest awards in the National and American League...
We’re less than 24 hours away from Opening Day.
Folks, we’ve made it!
Now it is time to buckle up for seven glorious months of baseball and indulge in all the thrills and delights that America’s National Pastime has to offer.
And, with Opening Day now within touching distance, it is time to look like a fool and put my neck on the line with some predictions.
Now, if you missed it, some of the best baseball writers on Substack came together to make their picks for the 2025 MLB season in a bumper roundtable.
You can read that by clicking the link below:
My picks are included in that roundtable but, seeing as I’m so pumped up for the return of baseball, and this is my newsletter, I wanted to beef up my predictions with a little bit more detail.
To that end, I’m going to explain my pick for each major award winner in both divisions now, and I’ll do the same for my postseason and World Series predictions on Thursday before the games begin.
Let’s get right to it…
In-Depth 2025 MLB MVP, Cy Young & ROY Predictions
National League
NL MVP - Shohei Ohtani
Okay, this might be the easy answer but I struggle to justify not picking Shohei Ohtani for his third consecutive MVP award. Not only is the superstar phenom coming off a truly historic 50-50 season - and a World Series win - but he will also return to the mound in 2025 too. Given his super-human ability on both sides of the ball, it is hard to envision a world in which a healthy Ohtani doesn’t absolutely dominate once again this year. Maybe 50 home runs isn’t realistic given that he will also be pitching, but 30 or more home runs, 30 or more stolen bases and dominance on the mound would probably be enough for Ohtani to add yet more silverware to his collection.
And, having won the 2021 and 2023 AL MVP with the Angels, and then the 2024 NL MVP with the Dodgers, Ohtani is putting together one of the most dominant and impressive stretches we’ve ever seen in professional sports. That will only continue in 2025.
NL Cy Young - Paul Skenes
One of the best things about the 2024 MLB season? The emergence of Paul Skenes.
The NL Rookie of the Year took the baseball world by storm last year, but I think his sophomore year will be even better and even more eye-catching. Skenes finished third in Cy Young voting last season, despite making just 23 starts.
This year? He will take that next giant leap towards superstardom and cement his standing as one of the faces of baseball. And, despite pitching just 133 innings in 2024, Skenes racked up 170 strikeouts and finished with a stellar 1.96 ERA. Furthermore, his ERA and K/9 mark of 11.5 would have both led all MLB starters if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. So, yes, it is totally feasible - and very likely - that Skenes will be even better over a full season.
Of the plethora of things that get me excited for the 2025 season, seeing Skenes produce absolute magic on the mound is right up there.
NL Rookie Of The Year - Dylan Crews
When I was thinking about my predictions a couple of weeks ago, I had Roki Sasaki as a lock for my National League ROY selection. But, after more thought and a lot more homework, I decided to go in another direction.
The Nationals are building something really exciting, and their bright new era will be led by Dylan Crews. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft has a high ceiling and all the elite skillset needed to become an absolute stud in the major leagues.
Crews is disciplined at the plate, he can hit for average, he has some pop and he’s got speed for days. In other words, Crews has plenty of elite tools. He also has the ability to cause mayhem on the base paths with his speed - his sprint speed ranks in the 93rd percentile in all of MLB - while his arm strength is in the 83rd percentile.
That sounds like a player who has the potential to wow in a number of areas throughout the 2025 season. Crews is going to be a lot of fun to watch for a Nationals team that should be funky given all their young talent.
American League
AL MVP - Gunnar Henderson
Okay, sure, Gunnar Henderson won’t be on the field for the Baltimore Orioles on Opening Day. The All-Star is currently on the IL with a mild right intercostal strain. However, the hope is that Henderson will be out a matter of days, rather than weeks.
To that end, I feel positive sticking with Henderson for American League MVP. Even if he misses a couple of weeks, that still leaves the slugger with plenty of time to continue his ascension as one of the best young players in the game.
And, boy, is Henderson talented.
The 23-year-old is an absolute joy to watch and he was named an All-Star in 2024 after hitting .281 with 31 doubles, seven triples, 37 homers, 92 RBIs, 78 walks and an .893 OPS. He also boasts Gold Glove potential defensively, as well as the ability to make a number of highlight-reel plays in the field.
It sucks that Henderson won’t be on the field on Opening Day, but it is a long season and the infielder will make up for lost time once he’s back, resulting in what I think will be a true MVP year.
AL Cy Young - Tarik Skubal
Before the 2024 season I predicted that the Tigers would make some noise and surprise a lot of people. I was laughed at. Well, who is laughing now?! The Tigers did more than make some noise, instead securing a return to the postseason and filling the entire city of Detroit full of hope.
A lot of that was down to Tarik Skubal, who has already entrenched himself as a cult hero and iconic figure in the Motor City. You can see why. The lefty helped lead Detroit back to the playoffs for the first time in a decade after going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts and a 6.4 bWAR.
There are a lot of talented arms in the American League - here’s looking at you Logan Gilbert and Garrett Crochet - but Skubal is just hitting his prime and I’m confident he’ll finish 2025 as the best and most dominant pitcher in the AL. And maybe even in all of baseball.
AL Rookie Of The Year - Roman Anthony
As was the case with my pick for the NL ROY, I spent most of spring training convinced that the Orioles’ Coby Mayo would be my final selection for the AL ROY.
However, and as much as stock as I have invested in Mayo, and as much as I still think he will come up and rake for Baltimore at some point in 2025, my gut told me to go in a different direction. After all, Mayo didn’t exactly handle having to start the season at Triple-A very well, and the Orioles are also loaded with high-end position players.
Therefore, I feel comfortable enough hedging my bets with Red Sox prospect Roman Anthony. The No. 2 prospect in all of baseball is an elite all-around hitter who can hit for average and for power. He could easily become a .300 hitter who mashes 30 plus home runs. He should be able to steal some bases too, and he will be a solid defender in the outfield. Although Anthony will begin the year at Triple-A, I don’t think it will be long before we see him in the bigs.
There is a boatload of high-end young talent in the American League, and I think Anthony will separate himself from that very elite group by the time we get to the end of the season. There is hope at Fenway again, and a lot of that is down to Anthony and his lofty potential.
Those are my detailed picks for the three major player awards in each division.
I’ll be sending out my in-depth picks for the postseason and World Series on Thursday to help celebrate the arrival of Opening Day.
See you then!