A.J. Preller Strikes And Shocks The Baseball World Yet Again
The San Diego Padres GM came out of nowhere to swing a trade for in-demand ace Dylan Cease on Wednesday, catapulting his team right back into contention in the process...
You can never accuse A.J. Preller of not being aggressive.
The San Diego Padres president of baseball operations has made a habit over the past few years of going all out in order to improve his baseball team in the now. Preller has swung blockbuster trades for a slew of high-profile names, including the likes of Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Josh Hader.
Don’t forget the litany of blockbuster contract extensions for the likes of Darvish, Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., with Machado signing an 11-year, $350 million deal in 2023. Darvish signed an eight-year, $108 million deal, while Tatis Jr.’s extension was for 14-years and $340 million.
Preller has also been aggressive in Free Agency - signing former Red Sox slugger Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal - all while building one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.
Well, the top baseball executive was at it again on Wednesday.
Just as all the trade speculation involving Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease seemed to lean towards the New York Yankees, who are in dire need of another starter after losing Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole for at least a couple of months, here came Preller with the latest in a long, long, long line of headline-grabbing moves.
He parted with three of San Diego’s top 10 prospects in order to finally persuade the White Sox to part with Cease, leaving the rest of the baseball world truly and utterly stunned. Again.
Now, you can certainly argue that Preller gave up too much in the trade for Cease. RHP Drew Thorpe was arguably the true prize of the package. Thorpe went 14-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 23 starts between High-A and Double-A in 2023. He owns an absolutely filthy changeup. RHP Jairo Iriarte recorded a 3.49 ERA, a 2.84 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 128 strikeouts in 90.1 innings between High-A and Double-A last year. OF Samuel Zavala split the 2023 season between High-A and Low-A, hitting .243/.391/.406 with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases. San Diego also included RHP Steven Wilson in the deal. Wilson has made 102 appearances for the Padres, compiling a 3.48 ERA with a 2.34 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
However, not all prospects are going to work out and Preller has done a stellar job in leveraging his abundance of riches in the farm system to go out and acquire high-end talent to help his ballclub win right now. Adding a legit ace in Dylan Cease will certainly help the Padres compete in 2024.
The 28-year-old entered the offseason as one of the biggest trade chips available for a reason: he has elite stuff and finished as the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award in 2022 after posting a 2.20 ERA with 227 strikeouts. Cease is just one of four pitchers to notch at least 200 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons. Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Kevin Gausman are others on that short list.
Furthermore, since the start of the 2021 season, Cease has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in all of baseball (11.4). Only Spencer Strider (13.6), Blake Snell (11.9) and Carlos Rodón (11.7) have better marks. Cease is also absolutely dominant when it comes to strikeouts, averaging at least 10.0 punchouts per nine in four of his first five seasons in the big leagues.
In other words, Cease is a dominant frontline starter and he fills a very real need for the Padres.
Now, granted, there are some ugly warts to Cease’s game. Most notably, his lack of command. He has never walked fewer than 3.7 batters per nine innings in his career. To add to that already ugly reading, the righty’s 4.0 walks per nine innings and 79 total walks ranked in the bottom five among all qualified starters in 2023.
Last season was just a down year overall for Cease. He posted a 4.58 ERA in 33 starts - a career-high - and he allowed a career-high 8.7 hits per nine innings. The walks have always been a major concern, and the control just wasn’t there in 2023.
However, Cease is still only 28-years-old and the key fact remains that he boasts elite, elite, elite stuff. You could make a compelling case that Cease has some of the most elite stuff in all of baseball. His fastball reached 95.6 mph last year, while his lethal sweeping slider has generated 40% or more whiffs in each of the last three seasons. Cease ranks 10th in strikeout percentage among 104 pitchers to throw at least 400 innings since 2021. The righty can just make bats miss at a high-level.
There’s also a couple of important nuggets of information to keep in mind when discussing Cease’s struggles from 2023 too. Firstly, he was on a garbage White Sox team that ranked in the bottom-six of defenses by outs above average and runs prevented. Secondly, Cease is now going to be pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark at Petco Park. So, when you consider that Cease will be placed in a better environment, coupled with the fact he’ll be playing in-front of a much better defense, then it is more than feasible to suggest that he’ll enjoy a bounce-back year in 2024.
Already owning a career 113 ERA+, Cease will now have the opportunity to really unlock the rest of his potential and move into the upper-echelon of the best pitchers in baseball now he’s in a much-better all-round situation.
There is no doubt that Cease ticks a lot of boxes for the Padres, but many were surprised they made such a move given what had come before. After all, Preller had traded away Juan Soto and committed to shedding a boatload of payroll. Cy Young winner Blake Snell walked in Free Agency, as did shutdown closer Josh Hader. San Diego also lost 60% of its 2023 starting rotation with Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha all hitting the open market.
However, I’ve never subscribed to the theory or school of thought that the Padres were going to bottom out in 2024. Yes, they lost an other-worldly talent in Soto. Yes, they let a legit ace and one of the best closers in the game both bolt town. And, yes, they were hardly active in Free Agency.
Look beneath all of that, though, and this is a team that is still stupidly talented. I mean, the top of that lineup will feature Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. I don’t know about you, but that is one scary 1-through-3. There is some depth there too with the likes of Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar. The Padres also didn’t have to give up any of their top 4 prospects for Cease, including phenom catcher Ethan Salas and OF Jackson Merrill, who is expected to make the Opening Day roster.
Adding Cease also raises the ceiling of the rotation. You would assume that Cease would become the ace, pushing Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove down a slot. Michael King, who was acquired as part of the Soto trade, slides down to become the No. 4 spot and there is plenty of competition for the No. 5 role. That’s a pretty damn good starting rotation.
FanGraphs has the Padres winning around 83 games in 2024 but, with elite offensive talent, a revamped starting rotation and still one of the top-heavy farm systems in baseball, I think the ceiling is a lot higher. This is a team that should be competing for a playoff spot and, with a top three of Cease-Darvish-Musgrove in that rotation, they could go on a real run too.
This is what Preller does. He takes the big swings and isn’t afraid to give up future capital in order to help his team win now. Cease will certainly help the Padres win in 2024.
And, when you consider that Cease will cost just $8 million in 2024, plus the fact he’s under team control through 2025, this really was a big-time swing-for-the-fences move that now makes the Padres a major player this year.
We should be used to Preller’s ultra-aggressive approach by now, and his latest no-risk-it-no-biscuit-type shocker of a move has propelled the Padres right back into playoff contention, and right back into the thick of baseball relevancy, too.
Dylan Cease was a really smart addition for San Diego, and A.J. Preller continues to prove that he will never sit still when it comes to making the big move.
This move, however, may have been the most shocking one yet.