American League Division Series Preview + X-Factors!
We're focusing our attention on the two matchups in the AL...
You know how when you are on a diet, you cut out all candy and chocolate and then, by the end of Day 1, you start to experience massive withdrawal symptoms?
That’s how everyone in Baseball is feeling today.
We haven’t been able to enjoy the sight of a 100 mph fastball perplex a hitter or that heavenly sound of ball leaving bat since Wednesday. And it has been unsettling.
But, fear not, because Baseball will be back on Saturday with both the American League Division Series and the National League Division Series getting underway. In other words, there is no easing back in. We’re jumping right back in with a mouthwatering feast of Playoff Baseball. Things really begin to ramp up from this point on.
We’ve got four really compelling and intriguing matchups to look forward to, including the Phillies and the Braves renewing their bitter rivalry, and the Astros continuing their bid to repeat as World Series Champs against the Twins.
Getting us started, however, will be one of the best stories to emerge from the 2023 season. I’m of course talking about the Baltimore Orioles who, despite winning 101 games, are being slept on a hell of a lot heading into the ALDS. I don’t get it. This team is stacked, they are young, they are athletic, they are fun, their starting pitching has been better than expected and they have the talent to make a deep run. I believe that in my bones and in my 2023 Postseason Predictions piece - which you can read in full HERE - I picked them to make the World Series. And I’m sticking with that pick.
Their matchup against the Rangers has all the ingredients to be an absolute doozy, and there are so many storylines in that Series alone to really get caught up in. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - I think this Series could end up being the best of the four.
I’ve got a ton of content in-store for you this weekend as we ramp up alongside the 2023 MLB Postseason. It is getting incredibly interesting now and I’m going to strive to bring you the most varied, unique and - most important of all - entertaining content I can.
I decided to split the ALDS and NLDS previews in two, so look out for the NLDS primer on Saturday. I’m also going to publish a storylines piece on Saturday too, running through some of the most enthralling plot lines that have really captured my attention. I also want to write something about Phillies owner John Middleton, who really is the mensch of sports owners. He is living his best life right now and I have a ton I want to write about him, and about the Phillies in general, who I think are one of the most interesting teams in Baseball.
I want to bring you folks a couple of Baseball stories a day, including the daily recap I’ll put together after each round of games. There’s a lot happening in MLB right now, and I want Blogs Of Steele to be your ultimate destination.
But, without further ado, let’s dive into some previews!
ALDS Preview
Texas Rangers Vs. Baltimore Orioles
Here’s the full schedule for this Series:
Game 1: Sat, 1:03 P.M. ET, at Baltimore (FOX, FS1)
Game 2: Sun, 4:07 P.M. ET, at Baltimore (FOX, FS1)
Game 3: Oct, 10, 8:03 P.M. ET, at Texas (FOX, FS1)
Game 4 (if necessary): Oct, 11, 7:07 P.M. ET, at Texas (FOX, FS1)
Game 5 (if necessary): Oct, 13, 8:03 P.M. ET at Baltimore (FOX, FS1)
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
LHP Andrew Heaney, Texas (10-6, 4.15 ERA) - RHP Kyle Bradish, Baltimore (12-7, 2.83 ERA)
Along with the Phillies - Braves Series, this is the matchup I’m most excited about in the Division Series. I just think this is a really multi-layered, intriguing Series with so many different subplots at play.
For starters, this series contains a team that I’m convinced will be playing in the World Series come the end of the month. And I’m of course talking about the Baltimore Orioles here. It amazes me how many people - including a bunch of really smart Baseball people and experts - are writing them off again. Haven’t they learned their lesson from the offseason? Many tipped the Orioles to suffer some regression but, instead, this young, uber-talented team ripped off 101 wins and won the American League East for the first time since 2014. They enter the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the AL and I think it is about time we put some damn respect on their name.
I mean, at this point, what else does this team need to do in order to prove to you that they are legit? Other than embark on a deep run in the postseason, which I think they are perfectly equipped to do.
This is just a stacked roster that is full of electric young talent and the scary thing for the rest of the AL is that I think this is just the beginning for the O’s. They are only just getting started, and we’ll look back on the 2023 season as their coming-out party.
Now, when we talk about the Orioles, we fixate on their core of elite young talent and their offensive prowess. And rightly so. You have phenom catcher Adley Rutschman, who has somehow slipped under the radar now that Gunnar Henderson has emerged as a star in his own right. But Rutschman is one of the main figures when it pertains to this next generation of studs taking over Baseball, and the second-year player is coming off a career-year. He slashed .277/.374/.435/.809 with a career-high 20 home runs and 80 RBIs, also a career-high. He set a new career mark in walks with 92 too. I think Rutschman is going to play a huge, huge role in this Series, I really do. Plus, he absolutely raked over the final 10 games of the regular season, hitting .400/.512/.629 with five doubles, one homer and five RBIs. I expect Rutschman to carry that hot streak into the Division Series.
Then we have the aforementioned Henderson, who is the straw that stirs the drink for this Baltimore offense. The shortstop, who also gets time at third base when facing lefties, should win the AL Rookie of the Year. Comfortably. Henderson was unstoppable during the regular season, slashing .255/.325/.489/.814 with 29 doubles, 9 triples, 28 homers, 82 RBIs, 10 stolen bases and 56 walks. He’s a magician at the plate, his speed causes plenty of problems too and he has a Gold Glove in his future. If the Orioles are to make a deep run, then Henderson will no doubt be at the heart of things offensively for this team.
The real scary news for Texas is that Baltimore’s lineup is more than just Rutschman and Henderson. Anthony Santander, the DH, finished hot down the stretch, hitting .310/.341/.452 with three doubles, one home run and 11 RBIs. Cedric Mullins had a big year with 23 doubles, 15 homers, 74 RBIs and 19 stolen bases. And then you have the likes of Aaron Hicks, James McCann, Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad, who all provide depth lower down the lineup. This is a young, athletic, speedy offense that can hit for power, hit for average, put the ball in play and make things happen on the base paths. They are going to be a tough out for any team.
However, as great as the offensive prowess is, it is also best not to sleep on Baltimore’s pitching. Sure, the starting rotation was ranked 25th in the majors through the first half of the season. Not great. But it got insanely hot down the stretch. Prized pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who struggled early on in his rookie year to the tune of a bloated 7.35 ERA, emerged as one of the best starters in the game since his return from the minor leagues. He posted a 2.58 ERA in 13 second-half starts, and will get the start in Game 2 of the ALDS on Sunday. Kyle Bradish gets the start in Game 1 and that shouldn’t come as a surprise given that he became the first O’s starter since Mike Mussina in 1992 (2.54) to post an ERA under 3.00, finishing with an impressive 2.83 mark. Furthermore, Bradish ended the regular season on an absolute tear, putting together a 16-inning scoreless streak over his final three starts. With John Means returning from injury and allowing just seven runs in four starts down the stretch, Orioles starters had the third-best ERA and were tied for the fourth-most WAR in the month of September. It is a good job the starting rotation is in good shape, because there are question marks over this bullpen. The biggest cause of that was losing star closer Félix Bautista to a season-ending arm injury. Without him, the bullpen finished with the fourth-worst strikeout rate (20.3%) in September. The O’s will have to hope that a fresh bullpen translates to a better showing in the postseason. Or that their starters can go long in games and ease the burden on that limited relief group.
As for the Rangers, I believe they will go as far as their slugging lineup and their vastly-experienced manager Bruce Bochy will take them. I’m a big believer in intangibles and you can’t put a price on having been there, done that and got the championship ring to show for it. In Bochy’s case, he has three - all with the San Francisco Giants - and he’ll have his team as prepared as possible. He will also have the advantage of his team just coming off an intense Wild Card Series, while the Orioles haven’t played a postseason game since 2016. That could help the Rangers, especially in Game 1 at Camden Yards on Saturday.
I do like this Texas team and if it is to make a deep run, it will be because of this explosive lineup. In the regular season, the Rangers ranked fourth in home runs (233), third in RBIs (845), second in Batting Average (.263), third in On-Base Percentage (.337), third in Slugging (.452), and third in OPS (.790). Veteran hitters Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are the heartbeats of this lineup, and they also have a wild card option in the red-hot Evan Carter (more on him shortly). It speaks volumes as to how potent and stacked this lineup is when you have Leody Taveras, Josh Jung and Carter hitting 7th, 8th and 9th in the order, respectively.
It is a good job the lineup is so good given the myriad of question marks hovering over this rotation. The Rangers poured a boatload of resources into their starters, signing Jacob deGrom in Free Agency and then trading for Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. However, both deGrom and Scherzer are on the shelf, leaving this rotation in a really vulnerable place. Veterans Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery were great during the Wild Card series, combining to toss 13 1/2 innings of one-run ball in the sweep of Rays. However, you do wonder if this starting rotation can hold up in a Best-of-Five Series. Andrew Heaney, who posted a 4.15 ERA during the regular season, will get the start in Game 1 and that has the potential to be an absolute disaster. I could see this potent Baltimore lineup absolutely feasting on Heaney, thus setting the tone for the remainder of the series. The bullpen isn’t exactly a strength either after finishing the regular season 30-for-63 (47.6 percent) in save opportunities, and Aroldis Chapman is a heart attack waiting to happen if ever I’ve seen one. If there is one thing I know for absolute certain, it’s that the Texas Rangers are going to have to lean on their big-hitting lineup, and not on their pitching, if they are to advance past the Division Series. But I really do think it is going to be a tough ask. The Baltimore Orioles are just too freaking good.
X-Factors
Baltimore Orioles X-Factor - Adley Rutschman
The phenom catcher is going to be a star in Major League Baseball for a very, very, very long time. He had a career-year in 2023 and finished hot down the stretch, slashing .400/.512/.629 with five doubles, one homer and five RBIs. I’m betting on Rutschman to continue on that absolute tear to begin the Division Series, and I foresee the switch-hitter having a monster series.
Texas Rangers X-Factor - Evan Carter
One of the stories of the year has been the sudden and breathtaking emergence of Evan Carter, who was a September call-up. The rookie hit .306/.413/.645/.1.058 with five home runs and 12 RBIs down the stretch. He was even better in the Wild Card Series, introducing himself to a wider audience by going 3-for-4 with two doubles, a home run, three walks and a stolen base in two games. Batting 9th in the lineup, Carter will give Texas plenty of offensive depth and he’s already proven that he thrives when coming up in clutch spots.
Prediction: Baltimore in 4
Minnesota Twins Vs. Houston Astros
Here’s the full schedule for this series:
Game 1: Sat, 4:45 P.M. ET, at Houston (FOX, FS1)
Game 2: Sun, 4:07 P.M. ET, at Houston (FOX, FS1)
Game 3: Oct, 10, 4:07 P.M. ET, at Minnesota (FOX, FS1)
Game 4 (if necessary): Oct, 11, 2:07 P.M. ET, at Minnesota (FOX, FS1)
Game 5 (if necessary): Oct, 13, 4:07 P.M. ET, at Houston (FOX, FS1)
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
RHP Bailey Ober, Minnesota (8-6, 3.43 ERA) - RHP Justin Verlander, Houston (13-8, 3.22 ERA)
For me, this is the Carlos Correa Series.
Not only is Correa going up against his old team, but he also holds the keys to this entire series. Granted, it wasn’t a great regular season for Correa, who hit just .230/.312/.399/.711 with 18 homers and 65 RBIs - officially his worst year - but he did get hot in September with a .840 OPS. Then, just as he did so often during his time in Houston, Correa became Captain Clutch and reached the very peak of his powers when it mattered most. He was the driving force for this Twins team in the Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays, pulling off two elite defensive plays that went a long way to winning the series for Minnesota. Going back to a place where he made his name, you can be sure that Correa will be extra-motivated to replicate some of his most memorable outings in the postseason while wearing an Astros jersey. He was their best player when they won the World Series in 2017, and he will go down as one of the biggest and most notable Playoff performers in franchise history. He hit 18 career postseason homers for Houston, and calling Correa Mr. October wouldn’t be too much of a stretch given just how dominant he is during this time of year. If the Twins can get that version of Correa during this series, then they have much better odds of springing an upset.
There’s also a lot to like about this Minnesota team outside of Correa. They have a true out-and-out slugger in Royce Lewis, who made history by homering in his first two postseason plate appearances. He is the driver for this offense. RHP Pablo López, who absolutely dealt in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, will be well-rested for Game 2 and this starting rotation is actually sneaky good. Their starters posted a 16.5 WAR, per FanGraphs, second only to the Phillies, their 3.82 ERA was second only to the Padres, and they finished with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 4.35 mark. Baily Ober, who will be on the mound in Game 1, posted a stellar 125 ERA+ during the regular season, while being able to have López and Sonny Gray go in Games 2 and 3 respectively put the Twins in a real good spot. Plus, with a stacked bullpen featuring Chris Paddack, Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran and Kenta Maeda, Minnesota’s recipe for success in the ALDS could be riding their red-hot pitching while getting clutch hitting from a lineup that can mash in key spots.
As for the Astros, they begin their postseason campaign hoping to become the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to repeat as World Series Champions. They will be aided in that mission by a wealth of experience that no other team can even come close to matching. The Astros have played 92 Playoff games since the start of the 2015 season, more than any other team in Baseball, and that know-how will help them navigate the ups and downs of this series.
It will also help that they get to hand the ball to a sure-fire future Hall of Famer for Game 1. Justin Verlander, who was acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline, has been here so many times before with Houston. His 16 Playoff wins rank second all-time behind Yankees great Andy Pettitte (19), and he is 16-11 with a 3.64 ERA and a 11.1 WHIP in 35 career postseason appearances (34 starts). With Framber Valdez set to get the start in Game 2, and Christian Javier likely to be on the mound for Game 3, the Astros are well set up as far as their rotation goes. Their relief pitching, which is more battle-tested than any other unit in the postseason, sported the sixth-best relief ERA (3.55) in the regular season. This is a bullpen that was built to absolutely thrive in the biggest and most clutch moments, and they could hold the key to winning this series for Houston.
It is a similar story with this elite lineup too, a lineup that has been in the heat of battle in a plethora of postseason wars now. The likes of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Martín Maldonado know what it takes to be successful this year time of year. At this point, it is just wired into their very DNA. Plus, when you consider that shortstop Jeremy Peña had his coming-out party in the 2022 World Series - being crowned the WS MVP - this is a really, really dangerous lineup that arguably reaches another level in October. They enter this series with a couple of insanely hot hitters, too. Veteran first baseman José Abreu hit seven home runs and drove in 28 runs in the final month of the regular season after a tough first year in Houston. Alvarez was better, being named the AL Player of the Month for September after slashing .293/.441/.620 with eight homers and 20 RBIs in the month. And, the fact that a number of Astros players are coming off red-hot Septembers should really scare the Twins going into Saturday.
With everyone’s favorite veteran manager at the helm in Dusty Baker, who just seems to be able to push all the right buttons at all the right times with this group, I would not be surprised if they made another run to the World Series. Heck, I wouldn’t even flinch if they went and repeated, which is an incredibly hard thing to do in the modern game. As proved by the fact that no team has done it since the Yankees between 1998-2000. But, if one team can, it is the Astros who boast a slew of players who just seem to turn it on even more in October. They relish the big stage, they thrive on the pressure and they have all the ingredients required in order to be successful in Playoff Baseball. As much as I think the Twins could be a problem in this series, it is hard to look past the Astros who have become the gold standard in October.
X-Factors
Minnesota Twins X-Factor - Carlos Correa
It can’t be anyone else. As already stated, Correa may as well be known as Mr. October due to his ability to come up clutch every single time in the postseason. He was the cornerstone of Houston’s World Series win in 2017 and, as he proved in the Wild Card Series, he thrives under pressure in the biggest spots. If the Twins have any chance of upsetting the Astros in the ALDS, they will need an absolute monster series from Correa.
Houston Astros X-Factor - Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is an absolute monster at the plate and he always seems to elevate his game for the Astros when they need him the most. Case in point; his red-hot September. He crushed eight home runs and drove in a staggering 20 RBIs in the month, and he has the innate ability to crush the hopes and dreams of opposition teams due to his absolute prowess when it comes to destroying baseballs. When Alvarez rakes, so does everyone else in this lineup and I expect him to have a big, big series against the Twins.
Prediction: Astros in 4
That’s it for my American League Division Series Preview.
Check back in on Saturday for my National League Division Series Preview, and a piece detailing some of the juiciest storylines I’m most excited about in the Division Series.
Happy October, everyone!
