Breaking Down MLB Playoff Chase On Final Weekend
Eight teams still in the hunt for five remaining postseason spots...
Time really is a thief.
We’re down to the final two days of the 2023 MLB regular season, which seems kind of crazy. I mean, it only seems like yesterday we were getting ready to proclaim the Mets as legit World Series contenders and the Padres as the new Evil Empire. Spoiler alert; neither of those things even came close to being true.
A lot of other crazy stuff did happen, however, and there’s still a boatload of madness that could go down over the course of the weekend.
With seven of 12 playoff spots already wrapped up, that leaves five berths still up for grabs.
At the time of writing this, the Toronto Blue Jays are just about to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. Why is that significant? If the Blue Jays win on Saturday, they clinch a Wild Card spot. They can also clinch if they don’t win, but more on that below.
Toronto is one of five teams that could decide their own fate on the penultimate day of the regular season. The Texas Rangers, the Houston Astros, the Miami Marlins and the Arizona Diamondbacks can also clinch a postseason berth on Saturday.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
If one team slips up, if one team chokes and collapses like a cheap pack of cards, there are others waiting in the shadows, ready to pounce and ready to take this thing right down to the wire.
The Seattle Mariners are still very much alive heading into the final weekend of the regular season, while the Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds are clinging on for dear life.
If we reach a situation where the Mariners, Cubs and the Reds win their final two games and other teams lose both, then we are set for all-out chaos. We’re talking potential three-team and four-team tie scenarios.
Now, I don’t know about you, but that’s the kind of chaos I’m heavily invested in.
With so much on the line, with so many potential different outcomes and with so many different scenarios all playing out at once, allow me to guide you through all the many versions of the playoff chase on Saturday. We’ll do another version on Sunday…
Already In
Before we get to the myriad of possibilities in the thrilling wild card race, let’s take a look at the seven teams that have already punched their ticket to the postseason.
The Atlanta Braves clinched the NL East and the best record in baseball, meaning they will own home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The LA Dodgers clinched the NL West.
The Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central.
The Baltimore Orioles clinched the AL East and the best record in the AL with their first 100-win season since Cal Ripken Jr, meaning they will have home-field advantage through the ALCS.
The Tampa Bay Rays clinched a AL wild card spot.
The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL Central.
The Philadelphia Phillies clinched a NL wild card spot.
National League
Magic Numbers
Diamondbacks’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth: 1
Marlins’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth: 1
Tiebreakers
Marlins own the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Reds
The Diamondbacks own the tiebreaker over the Cubs
The Reds own the tiebreaker over the Cubs and the Diamondbacks
We’ll start in the NL because the overall picture, at least on paper, looks a lot more clear-cut.
Heading into the final two games of the regular season, the Miami Marlins need just one win from their final two games in order to make their way into the dance. They have a three-game set in Pittsburgh against the Pirates, and the Marlins won the series opener 4-3 on Friday.
Now, it has been a weird, tough and chaotic week all at once for the Marlins. They saw their series opener against the Mets postponed on Tuesday due to rain in New York, forcing the two teams to play a doubleheader on Wednesday. Then, with mother nature wreaking havoc again on Thursday, Miami was forced to wait out a three-hour plus rain delay after taking a lead into the top of the ninth inning. The game was eventually suspended, meaning that the Marlins may have to return to New York on Monday in order to finish that game if they still need to clinch. It could also be required for postseason seeding.
Despite that madness, the Marlins very much have their destiny in their own hands and one more win is all they need. That’s their magic number. Miami also owns the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, the Cubs and the Reds. So, in summary, the Marlins are in pretty good shape. Again, if the Miami Marlins win on Saturday, or the Cubs or the Reds lose a game, they are in.
It is fair to say that the Diamondbacks are also in good shape. Their magic number to clinch stands at just one game too, but their path to getting the job done is more fraught given that they are taking on the Astros, who are also fighting for their postseason lives. But more on Houston later.
If the D-Backs take down Justin Verlander and the Astros on Saturday, then they are in. However, even if they lose they could still punch their ticket if the Reds lose to the Cardinals in St. Louis.
Now let’s talk tie-breakers.
The Cubs, who had a 92.6% chance of making the playoffs in early September, per FanGraphs, are almost out for the count after going 6-14 since Sep. 6. After being swept by the Atlanta Braves and then losing the series opener to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, Chicago can’t clinch anything on Saturday. Instead, they need to win both of their final two games, and hope that the Reds lose at least one game and the Marlins lose all three. Unlikely, but crazier things have happened.
Given that the Cubs are on the losing end of every single tiebreaker, they would need for every scenario above to happen in order to make the playoffs. And, considering where they were a month ago, that’s a pretty bitter reality to accept.
If the weekend ended in a four-team tie for the final two wild card spots in the NL, the Marlins would grab the second wild card spot because they own the best winning percentage against the other tied clubs (.611). The Reds (.538) would take the third and final berth because they own the tiebreaker over the Cubs (7-6) and the D-Backs (4-3).
In a three-way tie for one spot in which the Marlins claim the second wild card berth and the D-Backs, Reds and Cubs tie, the Reds would be in and the D-Backs and Cubs would be out. If the D-Backs claim the second wild card spot, and the Marlins, Cubs and Reds tie, the Marlins would be in and the Cubs and Reds would be out. In a three-way tie for two spots, if the D-Backs, Cubs and Marlins tie, the Reds would be eliminated, the Marlins and D-Backs would get in and the Cubs would be out. If the D-Backs, Cubs and Reds tie, the Marlins would be eliminated, the Reds and D-Backs would be in and the Cubs would be out. And, finally, if the D-Backs, Marlins and Reds tie, the Cubs would be eliminated, the Marlins and the Reds would be in and the D-Backs would be out.
Every version of a potential tiebreaker situation has the Cubs being on the outside looking in, and most outcomes have the Marlins and the D-Backs getting in. If you take anything away from all of that, basically Miami and Arizona just need to finish the job, there is still hope in Cincinnati and the Cubs are praying for a miracle.
American League
Magic Numbers
Rangers’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth: 1
Blue Jays’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth: 1
Astros’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth: 1
Rangers’ magic number to clinch the AL West: 2
Tiebreakers
AL West:
Astros own tiebreaker over Rangers
Mariners own tiebreaker over Astros
Rangers own tiebreaker over Mariners
AL Wild Card:
Rangers own tiebreaker over Mariners and Blue Jays
Mariners own tiebreaker over Blue Jays
You can make a fair argument that most of the final weekend drama and intrigue will take place in the American League. And there is still a pennant race to be decided in the AL West.
We’ve already seen signs of that this week thanks to the Seattle Mariner’s best impression of The Undertaker - rising from the dead time and time again to make sure they are alive and kicking heading into Saturday and Sunday.
J.P. Crawford - who is 14-for-46 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, 10 BB, 7 K, .304 BA and a 1.106 OPS over his last 12 games - has played the role of ultimate hero this week. He delivered a game-winning, two-run double that beat the Rangers at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday. If that wasn’t enough, the veteran came up clutch again on Friday after hitting a grand slam in an 8-0 win over the Rangers. Crawford’s memorable heroics have kept Seattle alive in the playoff race.
In saying that, the Mariners could see their season come to an end on Saturday. If the Rangers beat Seattle and the Astros get a win over Arizona, then Texas would clinch a wild card spot. Furthermore, if the Rangers beat the Mariners on Saturday and the Astros lose to the Diamondbacks, they would wrap up the AL West.
So there is a hell of a lot going on just between those four teams this weekend.
The Astros would need to beat the D-Backs on Saturday in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. That’s all it would take.
As for the Toronto Blue Jays, they could also clinch on Saturday if they beat the Tampa Bay Rays or if the Mariners lose to the Rangers early on. Sure, the Mariners seem like a team of destiny right now, but the Blue Jays just need one win from their final two games in order to sneak into the postseason.
Now let’s get into some tiebreakers.
In the case of an epic four-way tie for three spots - which would be chaotically brilliant and super fun - the Mariners, Rangers and Astros would be in, and the Blue Jays would be out. Because the Mariners have the best combined winning percentage against the two other teams in the AL West, they would also win the AL West title as a result. Now, this is incredibly complex and unlikely to happen, but it is a situation worth being aware of.
In the case of a three-way tie for two spots, the Blue Jays claiming the second wild card spot and a Astros, Mariners and Mariners tie, the Mariners and Astros would be in and the Rangers would be out. The Mariners would also win the AL West title in that situation. But, if the Astros win the AL West and the Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays tie, the Rangers and Mariners would be in and the Blue Jays would be out.
How’s your head after reading all of that? Probably not as sore as mine is after writing all of that out and meticulously triple-checking to make sure it was right AND made sense.
To keep things simple, though, all you need to know is that there are five postseason berths up for grabs - three in the AL and two in the NL - and that is going to make for an exhilarating last couple of days in the regular season.
Securing a fitting ending to what has been one heck of a wild ride of a year in baseball.
