Breaking Down MLB Playoff Chase On Final Weekend, Pt. 2
Postseason bracket is set, but still plenty to be decided on final day...
We’ve made it. The final day of the 2023 MLB regular season is upon us.
I don’t know about you, but I’m still catching my breath from a wild Saturday in which the five remaining postseason spots were filled.
All five teams who entered the final weekend with their destiny in their own hands got the job done and avoided the playoff chase going right down to the wire on Sunday.
It meant late season heartbreak for the Seattle Mariners, Chicago Cubs and the Cincinnati Reds, who all entered this weekend hoping to pull off a miracle and extend their season.
It wasn’t meant to be.
Full credit to the Cubs, by the way, for doing their best to add to the chaos. While they never really had a chance given that they were on the losing end of every single tiebreaker going, they provided us with a doozy on Saturday night. They put six runs on the board early against the Brewers, only to blow that lead. All 12 runs came before the third inning, by the way. Madness. However, instead of collapsing further, the Cubs got themselves together and piled on in the top of the fourth. They added an insurance run in the fifth and then in the sixth, keeping things at least interesting as their fate was decided elsewhere.
Now, with all that out of the way, you may be thinking that we’re in for a dud of a final day given that the postseason bracket is settled.
You would be wrong.
There’s still plenty to be decided on Sunday, including playoff seeding. Not to mention that the American League West Division Title is still up for grabs.
So, while we may not have a full day of chaos ahead of us as we would have hoped, we’ve still got some thrilling outcomes to watch play out.
I’m going to walk you through all of Sunday’s potential scenarios but, before I do, let’s recap all of Saturday’s craziness first…
Saturday Recap
All five remaining playoff spots were filled on a chaotic-filled Saturday night.
The Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros entered the day knowing a win would get them in.
For the Blue Jays, they lost to the Rays but, because Texas beat Seattle later on in the day, they still punched their ticket to the dance and won’t have to deal with high stress levels on Sunday.
Rogers Center was rocking from the get-go, and the decibel levels only increased after the Toronto offense put four runs on the board to take a 4-2 lead. However, a Harold Ramirez two-run shot made it a tied game and a pair of singles helped drive in three runs in extra-innings to clinch the win for Tampa Bay.
It mattered little in the end and the Blue Jays had the Rangers to thank for that. Going up against an elite starter in Luis Castillo, Texas put four runs on the board in the top of the third to chase Castillo out of the game. Seattle couldn’t offer anything in return, and a Marcus Semien double in the eighth that scored Evan Carter effectively iced the game.
As a result, the Rangers clinched their first trip back to the postseason since 2016, spelling a successful first term under veteran manager Bruce Bochy, despite a late collapse down the stretch. And by beating the Mariners, Texas also eliminated Seattle and allowed the Blue Jays to breathe a sigh of relief despite their loss earlier in the day.
There were more celebrations to be had in the American League as the Astros edged out the D-Backs 1-0 in a game where both teams were able to celebrate clinching a postseason berth. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander delivered an absolute gem, not allowing an earned run on just two hits while walking three and striking out five in five spotless innings of work. José Abreu’s double in the top of the fourth that scored Kyle Tucker proved to be the winning run.
It proved to be a routine day for the Marlins, who beat the Pirates 7-3 in Pittsburgh to clinch a NL wild card spot. Josh Bell drove in three RBIs and Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit a homer and went 3-for-5 as Miami clinched just the fourth playoff spot in its history.
So, there you have it. With the chips down, five teams rose to the occasion, defied pressure and got the job done to make it to the dance. It was a wild, wild night, and now our focus shifts to the final day on Sunday where a division title and playoff seeding still lies in the balance.
Already In
As we get set for the regular season finale, here’s a reminder of all the teams that have now clinched a playoff berth.
The Atlanta Braves clinched the NL East, the No. 1 seed and the best record in baseball, meaning they will own home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The LA Dodgers clinched the NL West and the No. 2 seed in the NL.
The Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central and the No. 3 seed in the AL. They will host a wild card series against the No. 6 seed.
The Baltimore Orioles clinched the AL East, the No. 1 seed in the AL and the best record in the AL with their first 100-win season since Cal Ripken Jr, meaning they will have home-field advantage through the ALCS.
The Tampa Bay Rays clinched the No. 1 AL wild card spot and will host a wild card series against the No. 5 seed.
The Milwaukee Brewers clinched the NL Central and the No. 3 seed in the NL. They will host a wild card series against the No. 6 seed.
The Philadelphia Phillies clinched the No. 1 NL wild card spot and will host a wild card series against the No. 5 seed.
The Miami Marlins clinched a NL wild card spot.
The Arizona Diamondbacks clinched a NL wild card spot.
The Texas Rangers clinched a AL playoff spot.
The Houston Astros clinched a AL playoff spot.
The Toronto Blue Jays clinched a AL playoff spot.
National League
Tiebreakers
Miami holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona.
As we did on Saturday, we’ll start with the National League because there isn’t too much left to decide, other than playoff seeding.
With the Marlins and Diamondbacks having clinched their postseason spots on Saturday, all that is left for those two teams to do is battle for seeding.
Because they own the tiebreaker, a win on Sunday against the Pirates would ensure that the Marlins are the No. 2 wild card team, and the No. 5 seed overall. That’s also the case if Arizona loses.
However, if the Diamondbacks beat the Astros and Miami loses, the Marlins would have to return to New York on Monday to complete their suspended game against the Mets from Thursday. Miami was leading 2-1 at the top of the ninth before rain suspended play.
So, with that said, it would behoove the Marlins to take care of business by beating the Pirates on Sunday to wipe out the possibility of having to trek to The Big Apple for one inning the day before the postseason starts. Winning today would certainly make life a hell of a lot easier for Miami.
American League
Magic Numbers
Rangers’ magic number to clinch the AL West: 1
Tiebreakers
If the Rangers lose and the Astros win on Sunday, the teams would be deadlocked atop the AL West, but Houston would win the division via tiebreaker. If the Rangers and the Blue Jays end up tied, Texas would take the No. 5 AL playoff seed over Toronto.
If the Rangers clinch the AL West and the Astros and the Blue Jays tie, Toronto would take the No. 5 seed over Houston.
If the Rangers, Astros and the Blue Jays all end up with 90 wins, it would be treated as two separate two-way ties, rather than as a three-way tie. In that scenario, the AL West crown would go to Houston by virtue of the Astros winning the season series against Texas. The second WC spot would go to the Rangers because of their better head-to-head record, and Toronto would end up with the third wild card berth.
If Texas wins the division and the Astros and the Blue Jays each finish with 89 wins, the second WC seed would go to Toronto, and the third spot would be given to Houston.
As was the case on Saturday, there’s more at stake in the American League on Sunday. Most notably, the American League West Division crown.
As outlined above, the Rangers would clinch with a win against the Mariners on Sunday. If Texas loses and the Astros win, the division would be Houston’s via tiebreaker.
There’s also a slew of different playoff seeding implications at play on Sunday, all hinging on who wins the division. So all eyes will be on the Rangers and the Astros in their respective matchups.
The Rangers really handled their business well on Saturday, and the motivation to win the AL West for the first time since 2016 should be enough to help them get the job done on Sunday.
Milestone Alert
There’s some really compelling stat races that could be decided on Sunday. Here’s a few of the highlights…
AL Batting Title - Rangers shortstop Corey Seager and Rays first baseman Yandy Díaz enter the final day with the same batting average (.330). Seager has the narrowest of edges based on percentage points with a .3298 mark compared to Díaz’s .3295.
60 Doubles - Freddie Freeman has carved out a year for the ages, but he might not be done there. The Dodgers first baseman has the chance to create more history on Sunday. He is one double away from becoming only the seventh player in AL / NL history, and the first since 1936, to record a 60-double season. Freeman holds the distinction of hitting the most doubles in baseball since making his debut in 2010.
Leadoff Record - Mookie Betts has carved out an MVP-caliber season, even if he doesn’t actually win the award. Part of that reason is how he has consistently set the tone for this Dodgers offense in 2023. Betts enters Sunday with 12 leadoff home runs, and one more would match the AL / NL record set by Alfonso Soriano in 2003.
Team Records - The Atlanta Braves go into the final day looking to shatter two team records. They are three dingers away from breaking the all-time single-season home run record of 307 homers, a record currently held by the 2019 Twins. And, with a current team slugging percentage of .501, the Braves are almost certain to finish the year with the best team slugging percentage in AL / NL history. The 2019 Houston Astros hold the current record with a .495 mark.
So, there’s plenty to keep an eye on across MLB on the final day of the regular season. And then we can start to get locked in and excited about the postseason, which gets underway on Tuesday.
Enjoy the regular season finale, everyone!
