Gunnar Henderson Is My Pick For The 2024 Home Run Derby
Plus, some general thoughts on this year's event and my overall love for the All-Star Game...
If you are a fan of the long ball and the most majestic sound in all of baseball, then Monday night will be right in your wheelhouse.
It is Derby Day, with the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby taking place later tonight (8:00 PM EDT) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
On a personal note, I absolutely love the Home Run Derby. It is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, and it is what makes the MLB All-Star Game so unique and special. After all, it is hardly a secret that the Midsummer Classic is as close to a real game of baseball as you can get. It is without doubt a fair and ultra realistic representation of the game itself, unlike the borefests we see in other All-Star events in the major sports.
And the Home Run Derby always serves as a mouthwatering appetizer to the delicious main course. I mean, who doesn’t enjoy some of the game’s best hitters blasting a crazy amount of baseballs into oblivion? A crazy person. That’s who.
Plus, with the rule changes this year - seeding has been removed from the first round and all eight participants will slug it out together, with the top four moving on to the semifinals - we are in for a real exhilarating show tonight.
I have a bunch of thoughts on the event overall but, before I share those, I want to make my case for Gunnar Henderson winning tonight’s marquee event.
The Baltimore Orioles stud is making his All-Star debut and Monday night could be his coming out parade on the global stage. Yes, he’s already well-known as one of the best young players in the game, but a dominant showing in the Home Run Derby could really propel Henderson into the wider sports conversation.
And, if I were a betting man - I’m not - I would place a hefty wager on Henderson mashing his way to glory tonight. The logic behind my thinking is really quite simple. For instance, Henderson enters the All-Star break as the third best hitter in all of baseball behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Not bad company to keep. Henderson’s 28 homers at the midway point rank third - also behind Judge and Ohtani - he leads the majors in runs (78) and he has also raised his OPS by a whopping 150 points. The 2023 AL Rookie of the Year is putting together quite the impressive sophomore season.
As it pertains to the underlying metrics, Henderson ranks fourth among qualified players in hard-hit rate (56.7%) behind Judge, Ohtani and Juan Soto. Furthermore, Henderson owns an average bat speed of 75.8 mph, which is the ninth best in baseball and also leads all Home Run Derby participants.
In terms of the eye test, Henderson boasts a really simple yet beautiful swing, one that is smooth as silk and very repeatable. That should work in his advantage during the Derby.
Of course, on the flip side to all of that, Henderson has a low launch angle and his groundball rate stands at 46.9%. Now, at first glance, that could pose a huge problem on Monday night. However, it is important to note that Soto, who won the Home Run Derby in 2022, had a groundball rate of 48.2% during the first half of that year. And, to further dispel the notion that a low launch angle could hurt Henderson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who won the HR Derby in 2023, entered that event with a 49.8% groundball rate. So, overall, I think Henderson should be okay even if he struggles to put the ball in the air all the time. After all, when he does, his 31.1% HR/FB rate ranks as the best in baseball.
Intangibles are a crucial ingredient in all sporting events and you can’t overstate just how badly Henderson seems to want to win this event. That burning and unrelenting desire alone could see the AL MVP contender blast a few more jacks.
Granted, Henderson will face stiff competition for the Home Run Derby crown. Pete Alonso is a master of this event. Marcell Ozuna knows how to put the ball into the seats at a high clip. José Ramírez has hit 220 home runs since 2017 - the sixth-most in baseball during that span. Bobby Witt Jr. has built a career on destroying pitches served right down the middle. Adolis García boasts elite-level power and can obliterate baseballs with relative ease. And, yes Alec Bohm and Teoscar Hernández are underdogs, but they both have a lot of upside as dark-horse candidates.
However, with all that said, I still feel uber-confident in predicting that Henderson will come out on top tonight. It is just a gut feeling, but one that I put a boatload of trust in. Feel free to come and mock me tomorrow if Henderson flames out in the first round.
But, whatever happens, even if Henderson doesn’t win, I’m still very excited to see him do his thing. Watching him hit homers is breathtaking, and I’m pumped a more global audience will get to witness that on Monday. Henderson becoming the youngest Home Run Derby Champion in history at 23 is also a pretty cool storyline, and victory in this year’s event could well be the first of many. He’s that freaking good.
On with some other quick Home Run Derby thoughts…
⚾️ I like the fact seeding has been removed for the first round. It means that all eight participants will get to compete together, with the top four advancing. Seeding will then enter into play for the semifinals, with the four players with the highest totals being placed into a four-person bracket. It adds a lot of fairness to proceedings, and it also means that we should see all eight players absolutely slugging their guts out in the first round alone, which will be a lot of fun. Also, the fact that hitters will now see 40 pitches or hit for three minutes - whichever event takes place first - for both the first round and the semifinal should add another wrinkle to the Home Run Derby. The final will then be two minutes long, or 27 pitches. Again, whichever comes first.
⚾️ I’m also intrigued by the new bonus system. Under the revamped rules, each hitter will receive an unlimited number of pitches until they record three outs. If a batter hits a home run that travels 425 feet or more within the bonus period, then they will get a fourth out to play with. Simply put, we could see hitters get hot and blast a barrage of homers to come back and win a round even if they are down heading into the bonus period. That should also be a lot of fun to watch.
⚾️ Okay, I hate discussing rule changes. What I do love talking about, however, is the fact that the home of the Rangers is an absolute home run hitter’s paradise. Per Statcast, Globe Life Park allows more home runs than the average ballpark both for righties (120) and lefties (110). It also has the fourth-highest park factor when it comes to just home runs being hit in general throughout the 2024 season. In other words, we’re in for one hell of a show.
⚾️ It does suck that the true juggernauts of baseball won’t be flexing their considerable power in the Home Run Derby. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are both out, while I would have loved to have seen Elly De La Cruz let loose in this event too. You want the very best of the best to take centerstage in the league’s flagship events in order to make it an even more attractive viewing experience, but I guess you can’t have everything in life.
⚾️ However, with that being said, I do like that the field is wide open tonight. I also like we could have a first-time winner. As already mentioned, Gunnar Henderson is my pick to win. But Bobby Witt Jr. is an absolute freak of nature and his average home run this year has travelled 418 feet. To put that into context, no other participant has an average above 410. Oh, and Witt Jr. has also hit a home run 450 feet this season. Twice. Both Marcell Ozuna and Adolis García are known destroyers of baseballs. José Ramírez has hit 23 homers so far this year and can certainly send a baseball into orbit. And, although they are being slept on, don’t be surprised if Alec Bohm or Teoscar Hernández get hot and go on a crazy tear. Anything can happen in the Home Run Derby.
⚾️ Then there is Pete Alonso. The home run king himself enters tonight with the most experience having already appeared in four previous Home Run Derby events. He’s won two of them, and he’ll be looking to make some history later by capturing his third Home Run Derby and tying Ken Griffey Jr. for the most victories in the competition. Sure, Alonso hasn’t been at his dominant best this year. He has just two homers in July, and his average exit velocity has plunged to the 35th percentile this season. However, as every Mets fan will attest, slugging home runs is second nature to the Polar Bear. Alonso has mashed the most homers in baseball (211) since the start of the 2019 season, and he has also blasted more Derby homers (195) than anyone else in the competition’s history. Watching Alonso launch jacks into the upper-levels is truly a beautiful sight to behold and, even if he doesn’t win, there is a very strong chance he’ll wow the audience with a boatload of monster shots.
⚾️ Overall, watching the Home Run Derby is one of my favorite and most beloved pastimes, and I’m beyond excited about this year’s event. Something about so many newcomers and a potential final showdown between two of the best young players in the game between Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. just gets my juices flowing. I’ll be stopping everything in order to watch the 2024 Home Run Derby, including putting down the controller and hitting pause on the incredible EA College Football 25 game, which came out today and is tremendously fun. Only the Home Run Derby would prevent me from pulling an all-nighter playing that tonight.
Enjoy tonight’s festivities, everyone, and I’ll see you again tomorrow.