Is Aaron Rodgers Really Worth The Drama For The Jets?
It isn't as straightforward an answer as you might think...
Sometimes you have to be careful what you wish for in life. The New York Jets should keep that sentiment in mind when mulling over a potential trade for Aaron Rodgers.
It seems the entire sports world is waiting with baited breath to see what Rodgers’ next move will be. The sure-fire future Hall of Famer is currently in the midst - or just coming out of - a darkness retreat and he’s expected to make a decision on his NFL future once that process is complete.
(On a side note by the way, despite wasting hours diving deep into research, I’m still a little perplexed as to what a darkness retreat is and what the benefits of doing one exactly are. One thing I do know; while there are those quick to anoint Rodgers as the new ‘Prince of Darkness,’ the great Ozzy Osbourne will always, always be the true and real ‘Prince of Darkness’ in my eyes.)
While we wait for Rodgers to emerge from his plunge into the darkness, it does appear as though one option is off the table. If the 10-time Pro Bowler does decide to return for his 19th NFL season (his 15th as a full-time starter) - and retirement is still very much an option - a return to the Green Bay Packers does seem unlikely.
According to long-time and respected journalist Bob McGinn, who has covered Green Bay for decades, an ugly divorce is on the horizon between the Packers and their long-time starter.
Speaking on The Go Long Podcast, part of GoLong.Com with Tyler Dunne where McGinn is a regular contributor, McGinn said:
“They are done with Rodgers,” said McGinn, citing his own instincts, his knowledge of the league, and “discussions with someone (who) has first-hand knowledge” of the Packers. “He’s not coming back. I mean, they’re disgusted with him, and they’re done with him. And they’re moving on.”
McGinn also added that he’s “totally convinced” Rodgers won’t be back as the starter in Green Bay in 2023, with the Packers seemingly ready to go all-in with Jordan Love, the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
With that in mind, if Rodgers decides he’s still got plenty left in the tank and wants to go ring-chasing one more time, then it figures he’ll be pulling on a brand new uniform for the 2023 season.
The general consensus seems to have the Jets and the Las Vegas Raiders as the two heavy favorites to land Rodgers. FanSided’s National NFL Reporter, Matt Verderame was of the same belief when he appeared on ‘The Andrew Steele Podcast,’ which you can listen to right here.
Either destination would make sense. I mean, in the Green corner, the Jets have a championship-caliber defense, some real nice pieces on the offensive side of the ball and their new Offensive Coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett is liked by Rodgers. That’s important. In the black and silver corner, the Raiders are based on the West Coast (Rodgers is from the West Coast), they have an offensive-minded Head Coach and, more importantly, they have Rodgers’ trusted old running mate from their Green Bay days in Davante Adams.
Both teams have the draft capital needed to pull off what will be a blockbuster trade, and it will come down to which franchise is willing to give up the most in order to satisfy Green Bay’s asking price.
If that team proves to be the Jets, then a team on the up with a young, talented core and plenty of exciting pieces will get an elite quarterback, one of the best to ever do it, and they will be in the contender conversation for 2023. Forget just making the postseason.
Heck, Rodgers will be the most talented quarterback the Jets have had since the legendary Joe Namath led the organization to a championship in 1969. Some may argue that Rodgers would be the most naturally gifted QB to ever play for the Jets.
He’s a Super Bowl champion, he’s a 10-time Pro Bowler, he’s a four-time All-Pro, he was crowned the Super Bowl XLV MVP, he’s a four-time PFWA MVP, he’s a four-time AP MVP and he was named to the HOF All-2010s Team. And he’s dancing his way into the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.
Rodgers would automatically become the star draw in The Big Apple. Every single one of New York’s back pages and daily talk sports radio and TV shows would be dedicated to him. Every word ushered, every move made, every jaw-dropping play on the field and every misstep on and off it would be covered extensively both locally and nationally.
The Jets would take over New York and we all know that would be a huge, huge attraction for owner Woody Johnson. He has seen his team mired in mediocrity for decades now. Worse than that, actually. The Jets have been the laughing stock of New York sports and the entire sports world for what seems like eons now. They’ve lurched from one embarrassing PR disaster to the next, and the product on the field has been consistently horrible.
To back up that latter point; the Jets have a record of 56-106 between February 21, 2013 and February 21, 2023. That’s the third-worst record in the entire NFL over that 10-year span. Only the Jaguars and the Browns have stunk out the building more.
There were big steps taken forward in 2022, though. The organization has seemingly found its Head Coach in Robert Saleh, and General Manager Joe Douglas has constructed a roster that is good enough to compete. Ironically enough, they were a quarterback away from making the postseason last year. It has become abundantly clear that Zach Wilson - the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft - isn’t the answer.
Rodgers would help take the Jets to the next level. He would give them a far better chance of winning right now. And he would make the franchise relevant again. Something ownership clearly craves. The Jets would be media darlings for all the right reasons once again.
There’s a huge and pretty significant but to all of this, however. As great as Rodgers is on the gridiron, there’s also a whole lot of baggage to deal with and the Jets need to decide if the good outweighs the bad enough to make that move. They need to make peace with the fact that, as much greatness as Rodgers may deliver, he’ll also attract a boatload of negative headlines too.
That’s just who Aaron Rodgers has become.
From his appearances on The Joe Rogan Experience to his weekly appearances on The Pat McAfee Show, Rodgers has demonstrated time and time again in recent years an ability to court controversy and wreak havoc. There was the whole being flimsy with the truth in regards to being vaccinated episode, and he’s been very outspoken in general on issues such as COVID-19.
Rodgers has almost become the villain of the NFL and it is a role he has seemingly embraced.
Another interesting aspect of this is team chemistry. Rodgers endured a down year in 2022 as the Packers went 8-9 on their way to ultimately missing the playoffs. Rodgers threw for 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, which were the most he’s thrown since the 2010 season when he threw 11 picks. Not only was last year a bad one from a statistical point of view, but it also wasn’t good from an optics point of view. Rodgers could routinely be seen chewing out teammates and, more specifically, rookies or young pros, on the field and he was also vocal in stating that players who make too many mental mistakes shouldn’t play and should have some of their reps cut.
The Jets, after years and years of mismanagement and a myriad of mistakes in the front office, are finally starting to build something meaningful. They have a championship-caliber defense, they have the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in Sauce Gardner, they have the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in Garrett Wilson, and they have a plethora of high-end pieces on both sides of the ball. We saw in 2022 that the tandem of Saleh and Douglas have instilled a team-first culture and mentality that has started to breed results out on the field. That team spirit is exactly why Zach Wilson was benched last year after proving he’s not a team-first player with his comments after a loss to the New England Patriots.
As a result, do the powers that be really want to risk upsetting that newly-cultivated culture by bringing in someone like Rodgers who will make it all about him? Do they really want to risk stunting the development of some of their blue-chip prospects by having a quarterback in the building who will just berate them, rather than mentor them?
It has also been widely reported that Rodgers hasn’t exactly been all-in or fully engaged with the Packers over the past couple of years. From skipping mandatory minicamp in 2021 to some in the Green Bay inner-circle believing he blew off the offseason and turned up to camp in 2022 out of shape, Rodgers hasn’t exactly acted like a leader. And your quarterback is meant to lead by example, he’s the tone-setter for the entire organization after all. If the Jets did trade for Rodgers, they would expect him to be the first one inside the building and the last one to leave from day one and rightly so. He would have to turn up with the right attitude and be prepared to set a good example for this young core, and then lead them into battle.
For all the upside a potential trade for Rodgers promises for the Jets, it also has all the ingredients to be a ticking time bomb that explodes very, very quickly as soon as the first little chink in the armor appears.
There’s the whole Derek Carr factor to consider in all this too. The free agent, who was released by the Raiders last week, visited with the Jets over the weekend and, according to ESPN’s Jeff Darlington, the meeting went “really well.”
Carr, who has also visited with the New Orleans Saints, would tick a lot of boxes for the Jets. He’s an upgrade on what they’ve had before, he doesn’t come with nearly as much baggage as Rodgers would and he’s also 31-years-old, making him a whole eight years younger than Rodgers. While New York may get another couple of years out of Rodgers, they could get four or five from Carr. Not only would that make a lot of business sense, but it would also expand their window to win.
Given everything we’ve mentioned with Rodgers, it is important to note that Carr is seen as a high-character quarterback with a high work ethic. He could be a better fit for where the Jets are at right now and he’d be a good role model for the likes of Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and even Zach Wilson, who figures to be the backup for New York unless he’s cut or moved.
It isn’t like Carr would just be a scant consolation prize, either. Yes, he had a bad year in 2022 with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions - he was benched by the Raiders for the final two games of the regular season. But he’s thrown 217 career touchdown passes and he’s racked up 35,222 career yards passing. He’s a four-time Pro-Bowler and he threw for 27 TDs as recently as 2020.
To hammer home the point a little bit more, he’s thrown for 3,900 yards or more in six of his nine NFL seasons, he’s completed 64 percent or more of his passes five times, he’s got the 4th most passing yards since 2014 (35,222), he’s had the 7th most passing TDs since 2014 (217), and he’s incredibly durable. His 142 starts since entering the NFL in 2014 are tied with Tom Brady for the most by any quarterback in that span.
Given what Carr had to endure while with the Raiders - no run-game, a less than stout defense, six different Head Coaches and five different play callers and a constant revolving door of players - you could argue that this Jets team as it is currently constituted will be the most talented Carr has ever played on in his career.
Plus, the Jets recently hired Todd Downing as their new passing game coordinator. The interesting point here is that Downing was Carr’s OC in 2017 and his quarterbacks coach the two seasons prior. During that three-year span, Carr made the Pro Bowl in every single year, he received votes for the MVP and the Offensive Player of the Year in 2016, and he threw a combined total of 82 touchdowns. So there will be some important familiarity there.
Carr reportedly wants to decide on a team before free agency begins, which is in roughly three weeks, so that he can assist in recruiting other free agents. Nobody has any idea when Rodgers will make a decision on his future and, when he does, there’s still a lot of logistical hurdles to be overcome before a trade can be completed. That could take weeks. At least with Carr, he’s available to sign now given that he was released from an existing contract. That would then ensure the most important position in all of football is secured and the Jets would then be able to move forward with the rest of their offseason plans safe in the knowledge that they have security at the quarterback position. You then aren’t messing about and wasting valuable time waiting on Rodgers, and it would give Carr chance to learn a new system and study the playbook under new OC Nathaniel Hackett, while also getting assimilated with his new teammates and new surroundings. The importance of that can’t be overstated.
And here’s the most intriguing factor in all of this. If the Jets did decide Carr, rather than Rodgers, was their guy then they would be giving themselves much more flexibility. Not only would Rodgers command a massive cap hit in 2023 - he’s guaranteed $59.465 million if he plays but has said he would be willing to rework it - but New York would have to give up considerable assets in a trade.
They would certainly have to part with the No. 13 pick overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, plus more. Now, if they instead signed Carr as a free agent, they wouldn’t have to give up any assets. So they would be getting a very decent QB at, probably, a cheaper rate AND they would be able to fill in some of the sizeable holes left on their roster. The offensive line still needs work and another high-end wide receiver would be top of the priority list too.
After all, while this team is good enough to now make the playoffs, there’s still a lot of work to be done before they can be viewed as a true contender. Signing Carr would mean the Jets would still have the resources to bolster and strengthen the roster in other areas.
Of course, it isn’t as simple as that. If we’re looking at this in a vacuum, probably every single NFL franchise would take Rodgers over Carr if they had a choice. Rodgers is arguably one of the most uber-talented quarterbacks to ever play the game and he has the talent level to be able to elevate the play of those around him. While he had a bad year in 2022, he won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021 and he boasts the kind of game-changing ability that would automatically make a team ten times better over night.
Just dream about this, Jets fans, and try not to drool too much: Rodgers in Gotham Green with the likes of Garrett Wilson at WR, Breece Hall out of the backfield, C.J. Uzomah at tight end and plus whatever veteran impact players Rodgers could no doubt persuade to come and join him in New York as his supporting cast. We’re not just talking about making the postseason with Rodgers at the helm, we’re talking about a potential deep playoff run when you factor that elite defense into the picture too.
The Jets have been searching for, longing for a true heir to Namath at quarterback ever since Broadway Joe bolted New York for the LA Rams in 1977. It has been that long for this franchise, and it is a hunt that has threatened to never come to a successful or satisfactory solution. Just like The Holy Grail.
It is way more complicated than that, obviously. Rodgers showed clear signs of regression in 2022 and, while that may have just been a one-off, a freak flash in the pan, he is a year from turning 40 and father time defeats all of us eventually. He likely only has one or two great years left, maximum, he will cost valuable draft capital to obtain and, more importantly, some in the NFL are beginning to look at him as, to put it bluntly, a true pain in the ass. It would be a high-risk-high reward-high stakes type deal with the very real potential for it to all go horribly wrong very quickly for the Jets.
We should probably also point out that Rodgers has hardly conquered the postseason as of late. Ever since the Packers won Super Bowl XLV in 2010, they and Rodgers have consistently collapsed like a cheap pack of cards in the playoffs. Despite all of his superhuman talent and the ice cold blood that pumps through his body, Rodgers has failed to deliver on the biggest stage time and time and time again.
Carr is the safer bet, for sure. He may not have the same ceiling as Rodgers, that’s for certain, and he’s only made one trip to the postseason in his career, but he is a considerable improvement on what the Jets have right now and he could take them to that next level. Given what he’ll have to work with, coupled with the fact the front office would still have money left over and all their draft capital intact to make other moves, Carr is more than capable of taking this team to the playoffs and beyond. With a stellar defense, elite weapons and solid coaching, there’s no reason why Carr couldn’t lead a team to the promised land.
The Jets now have to make that distinction and decide if they want to reach for the stars and acquire one of the best to have done it in Aaron Rodgers and become the talking point of the NFL - and take on all the risk and baggage that will come with - or sign Derek Carr right now without having to give anything up in regards to draft pick compensation, let him help recruit notable free agents to New York and give him the keys to the franchise for the next four, five years and see how far he can take you.
It will be a complicated decision with no easy answers, and it is a decision the New York Jets have to get right. No ifs, ands or buts. This is a true defining moment for the franchise. As a result, the most attractive option may be going star hunting and going all out for Rodgers. But, if that’s the road they go down, they first will have to learn to accept and live with the unrelenting side show that will come with Rodgers to New York. And, if that’s ultimately the decision they arrive at, they must ask themselves: Is it really worth all the drama and trouble?
Over to you, the Jets front office.
