Why I Love The Cubs Trading For Isaac Paredes
Chicago stuck to their guns and made a move that makes them better in the future, as well as now. And that's why you shouldn't have been surprised by the trade...
Evidently, the Chicago Cubs had enough of sitting on the sidelines and watching everyone else make trades over the weekend.
In a move few experts and insiders predicted, the Cubs sent 3B Christopher Morel and right-handed pitching prospects Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge to the Tampa Bay Rays for All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first with the news.
Many were surprised that it was the Cubs who emerged from nowhere to land one of the best hitters available, given the organization’s vow to only make moves for the future with an eye on 2025 and beyond. But, in reality, you shouldn’t be shocked the Cubs made this move. They made it clear they would be aggressive if it meant improving the ballclub for the longterm, not just for the final couple of months of the 2024 season.
And that’s why I love this trade for Chicago. When you break it all down, it makes all the sense in the world for a slew of different reasons.
Firstly, Paredes is 25-years-old, an ascending talent and he’s under team control through the 2027 season. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2028 season, and he’s earning just $3.7 million this year. As such, that fits right into the Cubs’ long-term vision and their approach to this year’s trade deadline.
Paredes improves the Cubs right now, and he should also be considered a major piece as they move towards contention in 2025.
The same logic can be applied to Chicago’s addition of right-handed reliever Nate Pearson, who they acquired in a trade from the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday. At 27-years-old and under team control through the 2026 season, Pearson, like Paredes, is a player that can help the Cubs become true contenders in the future as well as making them a better ballclub right now.
On a side note, this trade also highlights the substantial differences in mentality between big and small market teams. The Cubs, currently sitting at 51-56 and five games out of a Wild Card spot, clearly saw a unique and rare opportunity to add a very talented player with a lot of upside to their team now in order to get a jumpstart on the future. As for the Rays, they are currently only three games out of a Wild Card spot but, in a tough division with the Orioles, Yankees and Red Sox, have taken the decision to sell off every attractive piece they have in order to collect assets and avoid paying premiums on players that are too rich for the organization’s blood. That’s the Tampa Bay way, after all. The Rays have created an entire blueprint of selling high on a player and then replacing them with cheaper options that can be developed into studs who can then produce similar or better production.
Returning to why I really like this deal for Chicago, Paredes is a clear upgrade at the hot corner for the Cubs. Morel, who the Rays actually tried to get when the two orgainzations discussed a trade for RHP Tyler Glasnow before he was dealt to the Dodgers last winter, was clearly not the answer at third base.
It is no secret that the Cubs have been looking for a long-term answer at third for a while, and that search was only accelerated due to Morel’s struggles this year. The infielder struggled offensively, hitting just .199/.302/.373/.675 with 18 home runs and 103 strikeouts. Morel was also a bust defensively, ranking dead last among all players at all positions with minus-12 outs above average.
Paredes should be an upgrade in all areas.
He’s hitting .245/.357/.435/.792 with 16 home runs and 55 RBIs. That is coming off a career-high 31 homers and 98 RBIs a year ago. Furthermore, the Cubs are confident that Paredes’ success in Tampa Bay - he owns a 129 wRC+ over 1,377 plate appearances in a Rays uniform - will translate over to Wrigley Field. Although Statcast’s Park Factors states that Wrigley Field suppresses home runs to 97% the league average for right-handed hitters - in other words, Paredes’ expected HR by park this year would be 19 at Tropicana Field and 11 at Wrigley - Paredes’ power shouldn’t be limited all that much given he’s a pull hitter. That is an area he really improved on in Tampa and, as a result, he’s baseball’s most extreme pulled fly-ball hitter (minimum 200 plate appearances).
Furthermore, Paredes doesn’t strike out a ton - 15.9% this season - and his walk rate is at 12.1% this year, having not dipped below the 10% mark since 2021. He’s also versatile given his ability to play anywhere across the infield. Paredes has mashed against lefties this year - .278/.381/.500/.881 - but he’s also been effective against righties with a .234/.349/.414/.763 slash line. Of note, he’s hit more home runs against righties (12) than he has against lefties (4) in 2024.
Now, defensively, Paredes is hardly a Gold Glove defender, but he is an upgrade over Morel at third base. He won’t be a liability at the hot corner on an everyday basis, while he can also slide over to second and first and do a good job across the infield.
This could also be seen as some unfinished business for Paredes. The infielder was actually an international signing by the Cubs back in 2015, before being flipped to the Tigers along with Jeimer Candelario for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Paredes made his Major League debut for Detroit in 2020, but was then traded to the Rays in 2022 for Austin Meadows. Now back in Chicago, Paredes will look to help push the Cubs back to contender status over the next couple of years.
I do also like this deal for the Rays. Again, this is what they do. They get out from under a player before the price becomes too high, flipping said player for talent and prospect capital they can develop. They’ve been sticking to that blueprint for years now. I mean, they’ve already traded away six core pieces this year and cut around $12 million from their 2024 payroll in the process. They’ve also added fourteen prospects, nine of which slotted straight into the team’s Top 30 Prospects list, per MLBPipeline.com. As for Morel, he can help the Rays right now and in the future. Granted, he has struggled this year, but the power is there for all to see with 18 home runs. Plus, he’ll have the ability to play some DH and outfield, taking the onus off his glove and allowing him to focus on the damage he can do at the plate. Morel is also under team control through 2028.
This deal is also proof that the trade deadline isn’t as clear cut as just buyers and sellers. There is middle ground to navigate too, and both the Rays and the Cubs are doing that. The Cubs are trying to stay relevant in the now, while having one eye on taking a leap towards being a contender in 2025 and beyond. As for the Rays, they are still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, but that won’t get in the way of the bigger picture which is to save money and replace older, more expensive talent with younger and cheaper options.
Overall, the Cubs have taken a giant step towards ensuring that they will be a contender in 2025. With talented pieces already on the roster, Paredes will make them a much better team offensively and he’s the solid defender at third they have been seeking since the days of Kris Bryant. Chicago now has an incredibly gifted hitter and an ascending star under team control through 2027.
That’s good business and even better long-term planning.