National League Division Series Preview + X-Factors!
We're switching our attention to the two compelling matchups in the NL...
We’ve made it. After two long days without Baseball - in October! - we are in for an absolute treat on Saturday.
All four Division Series matchups commence today, giving us a 12-hour plus mouthwatering feast of Playoff Baseball.
Does it get any better than that?!
I really, really, really don’t think so.
The American League festivities will get us underway with the Baltimore Orioles hosting their first postseason game at Camden Yards since 2014. What an exciting new era for that franchise, and I really do think they will make it to the World Series this year. They take on the Texas Rangers who are led by veteran manager Bruce Bochy, who knows a thing or two about postseason success. He hasn’t got three World Series rings by accident.
Following that delicious starter, we get to see the Thanos of the Baseball world in action. I can only be speaking about the Houston Astros. Obviously. They are going in search of becoming the first repeat World Series Champions since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees, and you just can’t count this Astros team out. EVER. They are going to have a future Hall of Famer on the mound in Game 1 in Justin Verlander, they have a lineup full of players who thrive in October and a manager in Dusty Baker who knows how to get the best out of his team in nut-crunch time. Then there’s the Minnesota Twins, led by Carlos Correa, who was effectively Mr. October during his time in Houston. Correa was absolutely clutch for the Astros in the postseason - hitting 18 career homers - and now he will be looking to engineer the downfall of his old team. This is going to be an enthralling series to watch play out.
You can read my full in-depth, full of detail, all-the-bases covered ALDS Preview right HERE.
Also, today is probably a best time to remind you all of my predictions and picks for the 2023 MLB Playoffs. I went 3-for-4 in the Wild Card Series and I’m feeling good about everything I said. You can check that out HERE.
The American League Division Series is just the appetizer on Saturday, however. Because, once the first two games of the day are in the books, we have the National League Division Series to look forward to.
The red-hot Philadelphia Phillies get things started in the NL and, if there is ever such a thing as a team of destiny, then the Phillies are it. They were that in 2022 too, getting hot down the stretch before making a fairytale run all the way through to the World Series, only to be taken down by the Astros. However, this Phillies team just seems better in 2023 - I mean, they have Trea Turner for crying out loud - and that passionate, nuts, incredibly Philly crowd is going to be a major advantage at Citizens Bank Park too. And it is why, for me, this is one of the most compelling matchups in the Division Series. Philadelphia will be going up against their bitter rivals in the Atlanta Braves, who were the best team in Baseball in 2023. Can anyone stop this juggernaut of a Braves team? Well, if one team can, it is the Phillies because they did just that in 2022. There is no way on God’s green earth that this Series isn’t going the full five games, and I have a feeling these teams could give us the best game of the entire weekend.
And, in the final matchup of the day, the Arizona Diamondbacks head to Los Angeles as heavy, heavy underdogs to take on the Dodgers, who were the third best team in Baseball in 2023 behind the Braves and the Orioles. What makes this Series so damn interesting is that the Dodgers, for as good as they are, have a sad, sorry history of collapsing like a cheap pack of cards in the Playoffs, while they enter this Series with a few fatal flaws. Don’t be surprised if the upstart D-Backs, led by rookie phenom Corbin Carroll, spring a major upset.
So, without further ado, let’s fully dive into our National League Division Series Preview!
NLDS Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Vs. Atlanta Braves
Here’s the full schedule for this series:
Game 1: Sat, 6:07 P.M. ET, at Atlanta (TBS)
Game 2: Oct, 9, 6:07 P.M. ET, at Atlanta (TBS)
Game 3: Oct, 11, 5:07 P.M. ET, at Philadelphia (TBS)
Game 4 (if necessary): Oct, 12, 6:07 P.M. ET, at Philadelphia (TBS)
Game 5 (if necessary): Oct, 14, 6:07 P.M. ET, at Atlanta (TBS)
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
LHP Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia (4-6, 4.18 ERA) - RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta (20-5, 3.86 ERA)
What an absolute dream of a matchup we have on our hands. An awesome rematch of the 2022 NLDS. This is a series laced with so many irresistible storylines, headlined by the fact that this is one of the greatest and most bitter rivalries in Baseball. This is simply a matchup that has everything going for it.
And the hatred between these two franchises will be at an all-time high in the wake of what happened last year. The Phillies took down the Braves 3-1 in the Division Series on their way to making a run to the World Series. But, what is even better is the fact that the 2023 Phillies are way better than the 2022 Phillies, and the 2023 Braves are in a whole different stratosphere to the 2022 Braves. The 2023 Phillies have an even better lineup than they did last year and are a hot, hot team right now, while the 2023 Braves won 104 games and may be one of the best offensive teams we have ever seen in Baseball’s long, rich history.
Man, this is going to be a hell of a fun series.
The Phillies outscored the Braves by a combined score of 17-4 over Games 3 & 4 in last year’s NLDS and, as stupid as it may sound, you wouldn’t be overly surprised if they did something similar this year. Their lineup 1-through-9 is absolutely stacked and they didn’t have Trea Turner in 2022. Despite a slow start to life in the City of Brotherly Love, Turner really got hot down the stretch and boasted a stellar .931 OPS from Sept. 1 through the end of the regular season. He then posted multi-hit games in Games 1 & 2 of the NLWCS, hitting two doubles with two stolen bases. He’s going to pose a real dangerous threat to the Braves, especially with his speed and magical instincts on the base paths.
We haven’t even mentioned Bryce Harper yet, who finds a way to somehow elevate his game in October. He is built for the biggest stage, and it would not surprise me if he absolutely mashes in this series against the Braves. He has that in him and he and Turner will be the main drivers for this lineup. Then you have the likes of Bryson Stott, who hit a grand slam in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh, who make this a potent lineup from top to bottom.
The only slight concern for the Phillies will be their starting pitching heading into Game 1 of the NLDS. Given that Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola had to pitch against Miami, they won’t be available until Games 2 & 3. As a result, Ranger Suárez will get the start in Game 1. That could be problematic. He put up a troubling 7.94 ERA in his final two regular season starts, including allowing a season-high six runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the flip side, Suárez allowed just one run in six innings of work against the Braves in an outing on June 20, while he boasts a career 2.92 ERA against Atlanta. However, the lefty’s maddening inconsistency this year should worry the Phillies because you just don’t know what version of Suárez you are going to get in Game 1. If we see the Suárez that gave up six runs to the Pirates, then it could be a long evening for Philadelphia.
I don’t think the Braves will have the same concerns starting pitcher wise heading into Saturday. I mean, why would they? They are giving the ball to their ace Spencer Strider, who should earn Cy Young consideration after an exceptional regular season in which he went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA, while setting a single-season Braves record with an MLB-leading 281 strikeouts. Strider owns a 7-0 record with a 2.01 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies, going 3-0 with a stellar 1.45 ERA against them this year. And, I’d bet a lot of money on the fact that Strider will be entering this game with one massive chip on his shoulder given what went down in last year’s NLDS between these two teams. He had the absolute tar beaten out of him by the Phillies, allowing five runs over just 2 1/3 innings of work. There is no way in hell that Strider is going to allow history to repeat itself again.
Plus, Strider can relax somewhat knowing he should get a lot of run support. This explosive Braves offense was all kinds of historic in 2023, and they may lay claim to being one of the most productive offenses we’ve ever seen in Baseball. And that is really saying something. Atlanta matched MLB’s single-season home runs record (307), it became the first AL / NL team to produce a slugging percentage of .500 or better, and they should arguably now be mentioned in the same rarified air as the Murderers’ Row Yankees team of the late 1920’s. I don’t think that is going too far, either. This lineup is really that elite. And stacked.
I mean, just look at their likely Game 1 lineup:
Ronald Acũna Jr., RF
Ozzie Albies, 2B
Austin Riley, 3B
Matt Olson, 1B
Marcell Ozuna, DH
Michael Harris II, CF
Sean Murphy, C
Kevin Pillar, LF
Orlando Arcia, SS
That is the very definition of absolutely loaded.
Plus, Ozuna (1.090 OPS), Olson (1.046 OPS), Riley (1.008 OPS), and Acũna Jr. (.956 OPS) absolutely mashed against the Phillies in the regular season, so that’s a good omen heading into this series. I just can’t get over how stacked this lineup is 1-through-9. Acũna Jr. blasted 41 home runs and stole 73 bases during the regular season, Olson set a new franchise record for most home runs in a single season with 54, Ozuna blasted 40 homers, Riley hit 37 and had 97 RBIs, and Harris II was two long balls shy of a 20-20 season. At this point, I wouldn’t bet against this lineup being historically good in the Playoffs. They are that freaking special.
If there is one major concern with this juggernaut of a Braves team, it is its pitching. This rotation is beat up right now. RHP Charlie Morton will miss the NLDS with a strained right index finger. LHP Max Fried is set to go in Game 2, but he has been hampered by a blister that developed in his final two starts of the regular season. The bullpen struggled in the month of September, posting a 5.32 ERA, the fourth worst in Baseball. As for the Phillies, they are certainly rolling the dice with Suárez in Game 1, but then they have the luxury of having Wheeler on the mound in Game 2 and Nola in Game 3. With the extra off day in this series, that could certainly be a huge advantage for Philadelphia. That Phillies bullpen is also pretty good, and rookie Orion Kerkering could be a real wild card option.
And, one bad omen for the Braves; the team with the best regular season record has lost in the Divisional Round in each of the last two years. Yikes. Atlanta will be hoping to break that streak this time around.
Some more Strider stats before we move on; he has allowed two runs or less while completing at least five innings in 18 of his 32 starts in 2023. That includes each of his three starts against the Phillies. He has dominated against some of that Phillies lineup in his career: Turner is 0-for-14, Stott is 2-for-19 (.105), Realmuto is 2-for-13 (.154), and Castellanos is 3-for-17 (.176). However, Marsh is 4-for-11 (.364) against Strider with a home run. He’s the only active Phillies batter hitting above .225 against Atlanta’s ace.
Both of these teams can absolutely bash your face in and pummel an opponent to death. Both of these teams are littered with star power and big hitters. Both of these teams have aces that can flat-out win a game on his own. And both of these teams have all the ingredients needed to go all the way to the World Series and even win it. So, what’s gonna give? Who is going to come out on top in this battle of the titans? I just wish this series was a Best-of-Seven because I can’t wait to immerse myself in this one. It’s going to be absolutely wild. And epic. And all the wonderfully exciting things we all crave from a Playoff Series.
Bring it on.
X-Factors
Philadelphia Phillies X-Factor - Bryce Harper
There is so much depth in this Phillies lineup, featuring a slew of hitters who could cause a considerable amount of damage on any given day. And, while an obvious choice, I really do believe that Bryce Harper will be the tone-setter for his team. He hit .500/.529/.1.063/.1.529 with three doubles, two homers and five RBIs against the Braves in the NLDS last year. If Philadelphia is going to take down the best team in Baseball in 2023, they are going to need Harper to slug at the very peak of his powers.
Atlanta Braves X-Factor - Spencer Strider
It may seem strange to some that I would go for Spencer Strider as my X-Factor for the Braves given that he could only play in one game of the possible five in the NLDS. Plus, the Braves have an absolute murderer’s row of hitters and I could have picked any one of their slugging stars. However, momentum is everything in sports, especially in the postseason, and Strider could really set the tone for this series with a dominant outing in Game 1. Philadelphia arguably has the better pitching matchups the rest of the way in this series, so Atlanta will need its ace to absolutely deliver on Saturday and put his team in a strong spot. If he craps the bed and craps all over himself as he did against the Phillies in the Playoffs last year, then the Braves could find this series getting away from them early. Also, Phillies runners were 19-for-21 in stolen base attempts against Strider in the regular season. That’s something the ace is going to have to guard against in Game 1.
Prediction: Braves in 5
Arizona Diamondbacks Vs. LA Dodgers
Here’s the full schedule for this series:
Game 1: Sat, 9:20 P.M. ET, at LA (TBS)
Game 2: Oct, 9, 9:07 P.M. ET, at LA (TBS)
Game 3: Oct, 11, 9:07 P.M. ET, at Arizona (TBS)
Game 4 (if necessary): Oct, 12, 9:07 P.M. ET, at Arizona (TBS)
Game 5 (if necessary): Oct, 14, 9:20 P.M. ET, at LA (TBS)
Game 1 Pitching Matchup
RHP Merrill Kelly, Arizona (12-8, 3.29 ERA) - LHP Clayton Kershaw, LA (13-5, 2.46 ERA)
This is a series that could have upset written all over it. Don’t ask me why, but I just have this persistent voice in my head telling me that the Diamondbacks could spring an upset over the Dodgers. I can see it happening.
After all, these D-Backs are gutsy and they aren’t afraid of anything or anyone, not even the big, bad Dodgers. That was proven in the Wild Card Series when Arizona absolutely destroyed the Milwaukee Brewers’ vaunted starting pitching to advance to the NLDS.
Ruining my chances to improve to 4-for-4 in my picks in the process, too.
Plus, the Dodgers, for as great as they are, for as much as they have been the gold standard in the National League for over a decade now, they are known to collapse like a cheap pack of cards in the postseason. In 10 consecutive trips to the Playoffs, they have just one World Series to show for it and a hell of a lot of choke jobs. At this point, this team’s whole M.O. is to absolutely destroy all before them throughout the regular season, only to completely lose and then embarrass themselves in the Playoffs. It happened against the Padres in the NLDS last year.
And, at this point, there’s plenty of tangible red flags suggesting it could happen again. Sure, LA swept Arizona in the 2017 NLDS the last time these teams met in the postseason, but I’m really concerned about the pitching in general for the Dodgers. I’m not convinced a mish-mash of a rotation will hold up under the pressures of Playoff Baseball. I’m just not. Clayton Kershaw was great during the regular season with a 2.46 ERA, but he’s hardly vintage postseason Kershaw of a few years ago. Plus, he missed two months of 2023 with injury, his left shoulder is still not right and his velocity is just not there. Walker Buehler is out for the year with Tommy John Surgery, as is Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May was done for the year after undergoing shoulder surgery and Julio Urías is under investigation for alleged domestic violence and is unavailable. HOLY FREAKING CRAP would be the acceptable response to that list of pitchers NOT available / severely limited.
Instead, the Dodgers are going to have to piece this together after Kershaw’s start in Game 1. Rookie Bobby Miller, who has elite stuff and posted a 3.76 ERA with an 11-4 record during the regular season, could be a wild card option with a lot of upside in Game 2 potentially. I wouldn’t trust veteran Lance Lynn in a big spot at all, particularly if you need him to give you length. It is a good job, then, that the bullpen is so damn good. LA boasts a lot of electric relief pitchers with filthy stuff, including the likes of Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol, Evan Phillips, and Shelby Miller. It is likely that the Dodgers will trust their bullpen to come into games early and get the job done.
There is no doubt that the Dodgers will also lean on their two-headed monster atop the lineup in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Both players had elite regular seasons, and both players are MVP contenders in the National League. Betts hit .307/.408/.579/.987 with 39 homers, 40 doubles, 14 stolen bases and 107 RBIs. As for Freeman, he also had a monster year, slashing .331/.410/.567/.976 with 29 home runs and 102 RBIs. Then there is J.D. Martinez, who hit eight homers while recording a 1.050 OPS in September and October. He’s a big-time slugger who knows a thing or two about going off in the postseason after winning the 2018 World Series with the Boston Red Sox.
This is a deep lineup that should carry the team, and it will need to do most of the heavy lifting given the state of that starting rotation. And the Dodgers will feel good going into Game 1 with Merrill Kelly on the mound for the D-Backs. Kelly is a career 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA in 16 career starts against the Dodgers, while he has a bloated 7.27 ERA in two starts at Dodger Stadium this year. That does not bode well for Saturday’s start for Kelly.
After Kelly’s outing, however, the Diamondbacks are in considerably better shape than the Dodgers when it comes to the rest of their rotation. Zac Gallen, who dealt in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, could go in Game 2 of the NLDS, and they will need their two frontend starters to carry the load with the bullpen short on elite arms.
If the D-Backs are to spring a major upset, I would argue that it will come down to their lineup, and namely Corbin Carroll. The outfielder is set to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award after a stellar year in which he hit .285/.362/.506/.868 with 25 home runs, 30 doubles, 10 triples, 76 RBIs, 54 stolen bases and 57 walks. Yes, that stat line you are reading is real. Carroll really did have a 20-30-10 season as well as stealing over 50 bases and drawing more than 50 walks. He was absolutely electric in the Wild Card Series too, collecting four hits, two extra-base hits, a homer, two walks and three runs in two games. He is what makes this offense tick.
Granted, this has been an inconsistent offense for Arizona and there is only so much Carroll can do. But, as they showed so brilliantly against the Brewers, this D-Backs team aren’t scared of anyone and you can bet your ass that they would love to avenge the Dodgers for getting swept in 2017. If Carroll can continue to rake, if Kelly doesn’t crap the bed against his kryptonite in LA (again), and if the pitching can pitch around Betts and Freeman, then the Diamondbacks have a chance. As the great and renowned philosopher Lloyd Christmas once boldly asked: “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
Yes, Arizona, I’m telling you that there’s a chance. But a very slim one. As much as that Dodgers rotation is a hot mess, their bullpen is elite - arguably the best in baseball - and the lineup is deep. Plus, with two all-conquering All-Stars leading the offense in Betts and Freeman, I just think the Dodgers will be too much and they will be extra-motivated to banish some postseason demons this year after another stellar regular season.
X-Factors
Arizona Diamondbacks X-Factor - Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly absolutely dealt for the D-Backs during the regular season, posting a 3.29 ERA with a 12-8 record. However, as has already been mentioned, he hates playing against LA. Like, really, really, really hates facing the Dodgers. He’s 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA in 16 career starts, and he had a 7.27 ERA in two starts at Dodger Stadium during the regular season too. Logic would dictate, then, that Kelly will absolutely crap the bed in Game 1. It is almost certain to happen at this point. However, if Kelly can somehow erase a lifetime’s worth of pain and suffering at the hands of the Dodgers in one game and actually pitch a gem, then that could act as a major momentum-swinger for the remainder of the series.
LA Dodgers X-Factor - J.D. Martinez
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will no doubt do their thing throughout the NLDS, but I think J.D. Martinez will have the better series against the D-Backs. He was raking down the stretch, slashing .333/.371/.679/.1.050 with eight home runs, four doubles and 25 RBIs in September and October. Martinez is also a proven postseason slugger - owning a career .987 OPS in the Playoffs - and I have a feeling he will mash for fun against Arizona. Especially in big spots.
Prediction: Dodgers in 4
That’s it for my National League Division Series Preview!
I’ll be back on Sunday with a recap of all four Divisional Series games, as well as a quick preview of the two games on Sunday.
In the meantime, here’s a look at some of the other great 2023 MLB Postseason content you can find on the site right now:
Enjoy today’s feast of Baseball!
See you Sunday.
