NFC Championship Game Preview
Thoughts, stats, players to watch and predictions ahead of the opening game of Championship Sunday...
The journey to Super Bowl LIX is almost complete with four teams left standing.
And, by the end of tonight, we’ll know who will be facing off in New Orleans in a couple of weeks.
We’ve got two outstanding matchups on Championship Sunday, with the resurgent Commanders at the Eagles, before the Bills take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Everything is at stake for these four teams, and both games should be absolute doozies.
So, with the stage set, let’s dive into some thoughts, picks and stats, starting with the NFC Championship Game…
Editor’s Note - As I did with the Divisional Round Previews, I’m breaking these primers into two parts. The AFC Championship Game Preview will be posted later on.
NFC Championship - Commanders At Eagles
I was convinced that the Washington Commanders’ magical year was going to end in Detroit last week. I was wrong. Emphatically so.
Therefore, I’m not going to get fooled again this week. I’m all in on the Commanders and I think their fairytale resurgence continues in Philadelphia on Sunday.
Book that now.
It is just hard to look past Jayden Daniels right now. The rookie quarterback is having a season for the ages, and he’s now got the opportunity to enter rarified air by leading his team to the Super Bowl. If that happens, then Daniels will become the first rookie ever to win a championship game and advance to the Super Bowl.
What has most impressed me about Daniels is the fact that he’s playing with zero fear. Despite having never been on this stage before, the rookie has played with all the calm and poise of a well-seasoned veteran, not once being deterred by the bright lights. He is the first rookie to have a 100-plus passer rating in multiple playoff games, and, among rookie quarterbacks in the postseason, he ranks first in TD-INT ratio (4:0), PPG average (34.0), and passer rating (116.2). Daniels also has a rookie-record 46 completions in the postseason, to go along with 567 passing yards, four touchdowns and no picks. Oh, and both of the Commanders’ playoff wins have come on the road, making what Daniels has accomplished in his first taste of the postseason all that more impressive.
Stats aside, the eye test is also important and we know by watching these games that Daniels just plays unfazed. Nothing bothers him. That’s why he’s been able to lead five fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, including one against the Eagles in the regular season. In that contest, Daniels threw for 258 yards with five touchdowns, two interceptions and rushed for another 81 yards. He tossed the game-winning touchdown pass to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left to cap a nine-play, 57-yard scoring drive.
When the moment calls for the absolute best, Daniels is able to deliver. Every single time.
While the stakes are at their highest tonight, I’m almost expecting another monster, statement-like game from Daniels. And, if this game evolves into a shootout, I’m backing the rookie phenom to come out on top.
Of course, the Eagles have a 2,000 yard rusher in Saquon Barkley, who will look to feast against a Washington run defense that ranked 30th in the NFL in rush yards allowed during the regular season. When you consider that Barkley has already rushed for 324 yards in the postseason - which is good for the highest rushing yards per game mark (162.0) in postseason history - then that could be a really, really bad matchup for the Commanders. Plus, the Eagles also own the No. 1 defense in football, including ranking second in scoring and first in passing yards allowed. Furthermore, that impressive unit ranks first in the league in points per game allowed (17.6), and total yards per game (286.1). Jalen Carter, who recorded two sacks, three QB hits and a forced fumble against the Rams last week, will need to have another monster game and get to Jayden Daniels as often as possible in order to give Philadelphia its best possible chance of advancing to the Super Bowl.
With all things considered, you can’t look past the Eagles who have all the ingredients needed to get the job done on Sunday. Plus, they are at home and The Linc will be an absolute zoo. However, I just don’t trust Jalen Hurts at all and I think the compromised QB - who is dealing with a knee injury - will make one mistake too many. Hurts completed 15 of 20 passes for just 128 yards against LA, while also making a couple of boneheaded plays that could have really cost his team. Even with an elite defense and a potent weapon in Barkley, the Eagles are going to struggle to halt the unstoppable train that is Daniels and the Commanders if Hurts can’t get the passing game going.
Prediction: COMMANDERS OVER Eagles
Key Stat: Sunday will see a mouthwatering clash of unstoppable force against immovable object. Daniels has been delivering all year, but the Eagles have allowed just 17.6 points per game this season - the lowest of any team in the NFL. It will be fascinating to see if that unit can continue to dominate, or if Daniels does what he’s done all year by tormenting defenses and putting up gaudy numbers.
Stat I Love: Washington had just one playoff win in Daniels’ life before he became the starter. In Daniels’ first two postseason starts as the QB of the Commanders, he’s delivered two wins.
Player To Watch: I think this entire game hinges on Jalen Hurts. Daniels is going to do what he does, and Barkley will have a statement moment or two. But if Hurts struggles as he did against LA, if he can’t get the passing game going, if he commits multiple brain farts and if that knee hampers his mobility, then that will help hand the game right to Washington.
Enjoy the NFC Championship Game, and I’ll be back with the AFC Championship Preview later.