NFL Divisional Weekend Bacchanal Part One!
Thoughts, predictions and players to watch from Saturday's two Divisional Round matchups on the best footballing weekend of the year...
Happy Divisional Round Weekend to those who celebrate!
The best NFL weekend of the entire year is here - and there’s no arguing that statement, in my opinion - and we’re set for a mouthwatering feast of games across the next two days.
It all starts on Saturday with two excellent showdowns as the Chiefs start their three-peat mission against Houston, before the on-the-come Commanders look to spring an upset in Detroit against the gold-standard Lions.
Then, on Sunday, we’ve got two more tremendous matchups, starting with an underrated and highly-dangerous Rams team (in my opinion, at least) in Philadelphia to face the built-to-win-now Eagles. And, in the final game of a stay-on-your-couch-at-all-weekends type of weekend, and in what is arguably the marquee matchup of the entire Divisional Round, the two MVP favorites in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will duke it out as the Bills host the Ravens at a snow-covered Highmark Stadium.
By now, you would have no doubt read, watched and listened to a plethora of coverage as it pertains to NFL Divisional Weekend, and there are picks and predictions for the four games everywhere you turn.
However, I’m only going to add to all of that noise by throwing into the mix my own thoughts, predictions and players to watch as we wait for the Texans - Chiefs game to get a truly epic weekend underway.
Editor’s Note - Due to the fact that I am running slightly behind schedule, and with the Texans - Chiefs game looming, I decided to split this feature into two parts. I’ll cover Sunday’s Divisional games in a separate post that I’ll upload later on Saturday.
Let’s dive right in…
AFC: No. 4 Texans at No. 1 Chiefs
If we’re going to witness any upsets this weekend, they will likely happen on Saturday. I’ll explain why the Rams beating the Eagles shouldn’t be considered an upset later. Anyway, let’s focus on the opening game of Divisional Weekend for now.
There will be many of you out there rooting for an upset at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday. There might even be a lot of you who actually think the Texans have a chance to beat the Chiefs. After all, Houston is coming off a dominant defensive performance against the Chargers in the AFC Wild Card. Elite edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can send the fear into even the greatest of quarterbacks. The Texans also collected the second-most interceptions in the NFL during the regular-season, while they racked up four picks in the Wild Card last weekend.
However, you are being beyond foolish to bet against the Chiefs at this point. I don’t know why given their history, but it sure feels like too many people are underestimating the reigning two-time Super Bowl champions. Yes, they didn’t look all that convincing on the offensive side of the ball during the regular season. And, yes, all good things must come to an end at some point. But, with that said, Patrick Mahomes has never lost in the postseason before the AFC Championship Game, and that won’t change this weekend.
Kansas City’s offensive line has looked better since All-Pro guard Joe Thuney was moved to left tackle, and that will certainly aid Mahomes’ cause against an elite pass rush. Plus, when these two teams met in Week 16, Mahomes was sacked just once while Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was hit 11 times.
This Chiefs team know what it takes to win this time of year. They’ve also delivered in the clutch all season long having tied the NFL record for one-score wins with 11. More importantly, however, I really do believe Andy Reid has been holding back on a lot of his offensive magic until now. I’m convinced we’re going to see a Kansas City team operating at a whole other level on Saturday. The Texans might hang early but, ultimately, they are going to be no match for this relentless, winning Chiefs machine.
Prediction: CHIEFS OVER Texans
Key Stat: In the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs are 4-0 in the Divisional Round after a first-round bye, averaging 32.8 points per game in that span. So, yeah, rust won’t be a problem for Kansas City and the time off should only benefit Mahomes.
Player To Watch: The Chiefs didn’t acquire DeAndre Hopkins for the regular season. No, they traded for the five-time Pro Bowler to give Mahomes an elite and game-changing weapon in the playoffs. Mahomes has a deep cadre of weapons to go to in any given moment but, when it matters most, expect Hopkins to be targeted against the Texans. And, having never played in a Conference Championship game, let alone a Super Bowl, DHop will be extra-motivated to deliver on Saturday.
NFC: No. 6 Commanders at No. 1 Lions
Disclaimer: I have absolutely loved watching the Lions ever since Dan Campbell marched into Detroit and declared that his team would be biting people’s kneecaps off. They are just a fun, gritty, and hard-nosed football team that have emerged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Plus, given all the misery Detroit sports fans have had to suffer over the past few decades, particularly Lions fans, I’m sure large swathes of the country will be adopted Lions fans on Saturday.
As I mentioned up top, we’re more likely to witness some major upsets on Saturday, and Washington waltzing into Detroit and taking down the No. 1 seed in the NFC would certainly qualify as a HUGE upset. While I don’t think we’ll see such a thing take place at Ford Field, the reason why an upset is possible is because of one man and one man only:
Jayden Daniels.
When you have The GUY at quarterback, anything is possible. The Commanders are living that right now after a magical regular season culminated in the franchise’s first 13-win season since 1991, before celebrating their first playoff win in nearly 20 years after taking down the Bucs in Tampa in the Wild Card Round last weekend.
Daniels is at the heart of that success. The must-watch passer set records left and right during his rookie year, including becoming the first rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw for 200-plus yards or two-plus touchdowns in a road playoff win. Daniels finished his first year in the NFL with 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. In addition, he rushed for 891 yards and six touchdowns. Furthermore, the rookie ranked in the top five among qualified quarterbacks on the road in completion percentage (73.8), TD-to-INT ratio (12:2), passer rating (108.5), rush yards (378) and rush TDs (four).
If the Washington defense can slow down that offensive Detroit offense even a little bit, then Daniels will keep this one close and he’ll give his team every chance to cause quite possibly the biggest shock of the weekend. Daniels has an absolute rocket for an arm, he can extend plays with his legs, he has the innate ability to make magical things happen out of nowhere and, when the bright lights are at their brightest, he has shown that he’s capable of elevating his game in the biggest moments.
Don’t be surprised if Daniels delivers a couple of statement moments in the biggest game of his career to date on Saturday night.
However, with all that said, the Lions are a legit Super Bowl contender for a reason and I can’t see them losing this one. I just can’t. That offense is dynamic and Detroit boasts arguably the best running back tandem in the entire league. Jahmyr Gibbs has emerged as one of the most electrifying players in football this year, and his four-touchdown night against the Vikings a couple of weeks ago demonstrated just exactly what he’s capable of. David Montgomery is expected to be back for this tantalizing Divisional Round matchup, and that duo could end up causing absolute hell for the Commanders all night long. When you also consider that Jared Goff is playing at his absolute apex right now - he led the NFC in passing yards (4,629), completion percentage (72.4%) and passer rating (111.8) among regular starters, while also tossing 37 touchdowns - I can’t envision a world in which the Lions don’t take care of business as they look to deliver the city of Detroit its first-ever Super Bowl title.
If any game this weekend morphs into a high-scoring slugfest, it will be this one given that Detroit averaged an NFL-high 33.2 points per game during the regular season, while Washington ranked fifth (28.5 points per game). Plus, both of these teams absolutely love going for it on fourth down, so this could become a wild shootout pretty, pretty quickly.
Prediction: LIONS OVER Commanders
Key Stat: Jayden Daniels is 8-for-8 on fourth-down passes - the best season mark in NFL history - and he’s also averaged 9.4 yards per carry on nine fourth down runs this year. So, if this game is close late, expect the Commanders to hand the show over to their stud rookie QB.
Players To Watch: I’m going to give you two for the price of one here. Jayden Daniels was near-perfect throughout his rookie year, delivering a slew of ice-cold and highlight-reel moments late on in games. Daniels has been must-watch TV all year, and that’s going to continue to be the case on Saturday night.
I’ve been high on Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs ever since he was drafted 12th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He showed flashes of his potential in his rookie year, before truly breaking out in 2024 and emerging as one of football’s most exhilarating players to watch on a weekly basis. In a contest that has high-scoring written all over it, don’t be surprised if Gibbs explodes for a multi-touchdown game on the ground.
As mentioned above, this is only Part 1 of my NFL Divisional Round Weekend Preview. I’ll be back later with my thoughts, picks and players to watch in Sunday’s games.