Orioles Hit All-Time Grand Slam With Corbin Burnes Trade
Baltimore finally acquires the elite ace its rotation has long craved, throwing down the gauntlet to the rest of the American League in the process...
Baltimore Orioles general manager Mike Elias was crowned Baseball America’s Executive of the Year in 2023.
There’s a good chance he could repeat and go back-to-back in 2024.
In the same week new ownership was confirmed for the O’s - with Baltimore native David Rubenstein and his group reaching a $1.75 billion agreement - Elias swung one hell of a blockbuster trade on Thursday to complete a dream week to end all other dream weeks for Orioles fans.
Baltimore acquired elite arm Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, finally landing the type of frontline starter this team so badly craved. In return, the Brewers received infielder Joey Ortiz (MLB Pipeline’s No. 63 overall prospect), LHP prospect DL Hall, and a 2024 Competitive Balance Round A pick (No. 34 overall).
The beauty of that trade is the fact Elias didn’t even have to part with any of his top five prospects. As a result, the Orioles still boast the best and the deepest farm system in all of baseball, and it isn’t even particular close. This franchise will now enter spring training with the No. 1 farm system in Major League Baseball, the No. 1 overall prospect in shortstop Jackson Holliday, and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball atop its rotation.
Elias is constructing a perennial winner in Baltimore, carefully building a star-laden roster through the draft and putting the foundations in place to ensure long-term success. With the Rubenstein group boasting boatloads of cash, Elias should now have the means to lock down franchise cornerstones Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson - and later Holliday - to long-term deals, in addition to using free agency and the trade market to surround them with the talent they need to contend for the World Series year in and year out.
On that note, it wouldn’t surprise me if Burnes signs an extension in Baltimore. In his final year before hitting free agency - he’ll earn around $15 million in 2024 - the veteran was unlikely to sign an extension in Milwaukee. However, given that new ownership is now in town, it is feasible to think the O’s could give Burnes exactly what he wants and keep him at Camden Yards for the long-term. Anyway, there is plenty of time for extension talk. There is no doubt the Orioles made this move with all eyes on 2024.
And there is no overstating just how big a get Burnes is for the Orioles. As good as they were in 2023, winning 101 games and the American League East on their way to reaching the postseason for the first time since 2016, the O’s had some serious flaws exposed in the midst of being swept by eventual World Series Champions the Texas Rangers in the ALDS. While the bats largely went cold, the starting rotation struggled, finishing with a 7.27 ERA. That was the highest mark of any team in the postseason.
It probably didn’t help that Baltimore’s first three starters - Kyle Bradish (Game 1), Grayson Rodriguez (Game 2) and Dean Kremer (Game 3) - combined to earn just $1.9 million. Now, you don’t need to spend mega bucks on your rotation in order to win actual games - just look at the Mets who were paying Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer nearly $100 million combined in 2023, yet didn’t make the postseason - but you can’t win playoff games with a stupidly cheap rotation, either. Bradish, Rodriguez and Kremer were all overpowered by the Rangers, giving up 13 earned runs in eight innings in a three-game sweep.
The good news is that Burnes is built for the postseason. He’s a typical big-game player who plays his best when the absolute best is required. In 19 career postseason innings, Burnes owns a 2.84 ERA and he’s used to pitching in playoff games for the Brewers in recent seasons. Come October, he will be ready to shine as the ace in that Orioles staff.
You need elite pitching in order to win deep in the playoffs, and Baltimore now has that in Burnes.
As it pertains to the regular season, the O’s now boast a rotation that has the potential to be really, really good. With Burnes as the frontline starter, Bradish can slot into the No. 2 role, Rodriguez, who had an up and down rookie year, will be the No. 3 starter and John Means and Kremer will round out the rotation.
Does Baltimore need more pitching depth? You could make a strong argument in favor of that. However, with the deepest farm system in all of baseball, the front office have the plethora of assets needed to go out and swing a trade for another high-end starter in June or July. Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease could be a legit option then.
Back to Burnes.
The three-time All-Star is as elite as they come. Now established as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, Burnes is a top five starter in MLB right now and his accolades are as impressive as they are lengthy. He has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting in each of the past four seasons, and he won the NL Cy Young in 2021 after pitching to a stellar 2.43 ERA with 234 strikeouts in 167 innings pitched.
Burnes is also an absolute workhorse who is guaranteed to take the ball and pitch every fifth day. He’s durable having made at least 30 starts in four of his five full seasons in the majors, and he’s averaged 188 innings over the last three years while striking out an average of 226 batters. In other words, Burnes is an absolute warrior on the mound with filthy stuff and an insatiable appetite to win.
Furthermore, since 2020, Burnes has pitched to a 2.86 ERA and 2.84 FIP across 622.1 innings with a 30.9% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. He’s also second in wins above replacement with 17.9 in that span, per FanGraphs. In the last four seasons, only Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has accumulated more fWAR than Burnes. Plus, at least 167 innings pitched in each of the last three seasons hammers home just how big of a workhorse the 29-year-old really is.
After tossing a career-high 202 innings in 2022, while leading the National League in strikeouts with 243, Burnes went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 2023. He also recorded a NL-best 1.07 WHIP, to go along with 200 strikeouts in 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. Perhaps more impressive, though, is the fact the righty elevated his game to a whole new level down the stretch, posting a 2.71 ERA in 14 second-half starts after the All-Star break.
Only Erik Bedard (221 in 2007), Mike Mussina (218 in 1997, 210 in 2000 and 204 in 1996) Dave McNally (202 in 1968) have recorded 200-plus strikeouts in a single season for the O’s, so we could be talking about Burnes becoming one of the most dominant and effective pitchers in franchise history in just one year in 2024.
And, in an offseason where the New York Yankees added Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman, the Toronto Blue Jays made minor adjustments, the Tampa Bay Rays continued to do what they do, and the Boston Red Sox did basically nothing, the Orioles have ensured that they remain an absolute formidable heavyweight in the AL East by adding the one crucial piece they were really missing: an elite arm to lead the rotation.
This was a swing-for-the-fences type trade the Orioles just needed to make, and they really didn’t dent their loaded farm system at all by doing it. Hall, who was a first-round pick in the 2017 Draft, was seen as more of a reliever by Baltimore and developing pitchers is hardly an exact science, nor a slam dunk guarantee. As for Ortiz, he did post an electric .448 OPS in 15 big league games in 2023, and he could become a future Gold Glover due to his excellent defensive skills and instincts. However, his path to the big leagues was blocked due to the logjam that has been created because of Baltimore’s glut of infield talent. Both Hall and Ortiz were expendable, and you give away those prospects for a proven and established starter with Burnes’ skillset and capabilities every single day of the week without question.
The Baltimore Orioles were always going to be a legit threat heading into 2024, but now they are legit World Series contenders thanks to their new elite ace. Acquiring a bona-fide top-end starter in Corbin Burnes could well prove to be an absolute game-changer for this franchise. If you are serious about competing for pennants and winning big games, then this is exactly the type of big-time move you make.
The Orioles mean business. And they are going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch in 2024.
