Phillies Are Built To Win Now, D-Backs Looking To Continue Magic Carpet Ride - National League Championship Preview!
Who will come out on top between the Phillies and the Diamondbacks?
I can only see two outcomes for this series…
The Philadelphia Phillies sweeping, or the Arizona Diamondbacks forcing a Game 7 and getting the job done in a do-or-die game to continue on their magical carpet ride all the way to the World Series.
Don’t ask why, but my mind is just convinced that this is the way the National League Championship Series will pan out.
I could be totally wrong (wouldn’t be the first or last time), but there is just something about this matchup that both intrigues and confuses me in equal measure.
After all, I’ve been referring to the Phillies as a team of destiny for a while now. But, if I’m being totally honest, I am way off on that one. They aren’t a team of destiny, but rather an absolute behemoth that was built and designed to win in October.
That’s exactly what Philadelphia is doing, and why I wouldn’t be surprised if a sweep and a second consecutive trip to the Fall Classic followed.
Again, for those who didn’t hear me right at the back of the room, THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ARE LEGIT AND ARE BUILT TO WIN IN OCTOBER.
I’d even go as far to argue that the Phillies are the second best team in baseball right behind the Atlanta Braves, a juggernaut they absolutely picked apart in four games in the NLDS.
Owner John S. Middleton has pushed all of his chips into the middle of the table and committed vast amounts of wealth to ensure that this is a team that can win not one, but multiple championships. Of course, before you win two you have to win one but, given how this roster is currently constituted, I would not be surprised if this organization goes on to win their first World Series since 2008.
Now, I’d suggest that the team of destiny tag is more suitable for the Arizona Diamondbacks. After all, hands up if you had this young upstart team being one of the four left standing? No, I didn’t think so. I certainly didn’t because I was convinced the Milwaukee Brewers would lean on their vaunted starting pitching to beat Arizona in the Wild Card.
Look how that turned out.
Instead, these stubborn, resilient, not scared of anybody D-Backs took down the Brewers, obliterated their starting pitching and then did the same to the heavyweight LA Dodgers in the NLDS. A Dodgers team that won 100 games in the regular season and had the lethal two-headed monster of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman atop their lineup card, by the way.
The Diamondbacks are the party crashers of the postseason in every sense of the word. And they will be looking to maintain that reputation as they look to take down another big-hitter in the Phillies.
If that happens, then Arizona will be heading back to the World Series for the first time since 2001. That is a long, long, long wait. Heck, the iPhone wasn’t even a thought the last time the Diamondbacks were playing for real hardware. Neither were the Kardashians. Social media still hadn’t really reared its ugly head and the world was a happier, less complicated place.
And the fact that the D-Backs are even here is remarkable in itself. I mean, this is an 84-win team that has elevated its game in October and then some. The starting pitching, which ranked 20th in MLB with a 4.48 team ERA during the regular season, currently owns a stellar 2.20 mark in the postseason. The offense, which was middle-of-the-pack in the regular season, has morphed into an explosive lineup that beat the absolute tar out of both the Brewers and the Dodgers. Pitching staffs for both Milwaukee and LA had no answers for a juggernaut Arizona offense that has become an absolute monster over night.
Gabriel Moreno (1.107 OPS), Christian Walker (1.023 OPS), Ketel Marte (.984) and Corbin Carroll (1.389 OPS) are are all hitting at insane levels so far this postseason. Carroll in particular is really having a playoff for the ages, going 7-for-17 with one double, two homers, four RBIs, six walks and two stolen bases. If the baseball world didn’t know how special the outfielder was before the playoffs, they certainly do now.
However, a regression to the means is a real thing and a very real concern with this Arizona team. If the starting pitching reverts back to type and Zac Gallen gets shelled in Game 1, then things could unravel very, very quickly for this team. After all, the Diamondbacks don’t have the luxury of an elite one-two punch like the Phillies do with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
The same applies to the offense. While the likes of Carroll, Walker and Moreno have been hitting at all-time historical levels in October, logic would dictate that a regression is on the way. If the magical pixie dust runs out in this series and this lineup can’t figure out either Wheeler or Nola, then that’s when I start to think a Phillies sweep could happen. As great as this Diamondbacks team is right now, there is some fools gold there and they could be exposed by a legit postseason team in Philadelphia that is clearly built to win in October.
I could be wrong, and nothing can take away from the excellent job general manager Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo have done with this team in 2023. However, I just can’t see the Phillies being stopped right now. By anyone. They are just too damn good and they are going to have a couple of major advantages in this series.
Of course, the D-Backs aren’t scared of anyone but neither are the Phillies. And why would they be when they have the backing of arguably some of the best sports fans in the entire country? My love for Philly sports fans has grown tenfold during these playoffs and Citizens Bank Park is not an easy place for any team to go and play.
Just ask the Braves.
The Diamondbacks, who are young and not really that battle tested in October yet, are going to have to win the mental battle of dealing with those rowdy, invested, passionate, screaming, frothing at the mouth, relentless fans who are going to be on the ass of the Arizona players every single step of the way. And, when Wheeler records a big out in Game 1 or Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos or whoever crushes a pitch for a home run or gets on base, that place is going to absolutely erupt and it is going to feel like an earthquake is happening. Have the Diamondbacks got the mental fortitude to deal with that kind of noise and pressure? Only time will tell.
Put it this way; the Phillies and their fans are one and the same. They are united. They are together. And they are going to stick together no matter what and come at you with everything at their disposal. It is an intimidating and formidable combination, and those fans know how to push their heroes to another seemingly impossible level. They know how to elevate them, how to motivate them and how to push them through difficult moments. The entire city of Philadelphia really is going to play a crucial role in this series.
There’s a reason the Phillies are 4-0 at home in the postseason.
The Phillies also have the advantage of being here before having beat the San Diego Padres in five games in the 2022 NLDS to advance to the World Series. That experience and that know-how will count for a lot. Plus, let’s not forget that this roster is championship-caliber. There are elite studs in the starting rotation, the bullpen is absolutely loaded and the lineup, man, this freaking lineup. It is stacked 1-through-9 and there are some serious game-changers at the top of this lineup. It is only a matter of time until Kyle Schwarber gets hot and goes on a tear, Nick Castellanos became the first player in postseason history to have back-to-back multihomer games in the NLDS, Trea Turner is hitting .500 with four doubles, two home runs and a 1.455 OPS this postseason, and then there is Postseason Bryce Harper who is batting .368 with three homers and a 1.380 OPS in these playoffs. That lineup, which also boasts a slew of key supporting cast, could absolutely decimate Arizona’s starting pitching.
And then there’s Zack Wheeler. He really should belong in the upper-echelons of elite starting pitchers in the game today. He’s even better in October. Wheeler has a 2.59 ERA in eight career postseason starts. That ranks 19th out of 121 pitchers who have made eight or more postseason starts. It is also a better mark than some storied Hall of Fame pitchers such as Whitey Ford (2.71), Jim Palmer (2.75), Tom Seaver (2.77), and Pedro Martinez (3.53). Furthermore, Wheeler’s 0.72 WHIP ranks best among those same 123 pitchers. To quote the great Larry David, that’s pretty, pretty, pretty good.
At this point, it would be stupid to bet against the Diamondbacks and, if they did make it to the World Series, no one should be really surprised. However, the Phillies lost in the World Series in 2022 but they are a much better, a more complete team in 2023 and I struggle to see their starting pitching, that explosive and deep lineup and that stacked bullpen not getting the job done in seven games.
One more fun note. Phillies manager Rob Thompson and Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo actually played together at Class A Lakeland around 40 years ago. Their paths will now cross again on the biggest stage with so much at stake, and that’s a neat little plot line to keep an eye on as this series progresses.
I think we’re going to be in for one hell of a heart-beating-out-of-your-chest thrill ride with this series.
Oh, before I move on for real this time, how about a stat of the day: The Phillies are 26-11 all-time at home in the postseason. Their gaudy .703 winning percentage is the best mark in Major League Baseball. Ladies and gents, Citizens Bank Park is an absolute fortress in October.
Let’s get you set with the full schedule, pitching matchups and X-Factors for both teams…
NLCS Schedule
Game 1: Oct, 16, 8:07 P.M. ET, at Philadelphia (TBS)
Game 2: Oct, 17, 8:07 P.M. ET, at Philadelphia (TBS)
Game 3: Oct, 19, 5:07 P.M. ET, at Arizona (TBS)
Game 4: Oct, 20, 8:07 P.M. ET, at Arizona (TBS)
Game 5 (if necessary): Oct, 21, 8:07 P.M. ET, at Arizona (TBS)
Game 6 (if necessary): Oct, 23, 5:07 P.M. ET, at Philadelphia (TBS)
Game 7 (if necessary): Oct, 24, 8:07 P.M. ET, at Philadelphia (TBS)
Pitching Matchups
Let’s take a look at the confirmed pitching matchups so far for the NLCS…
Game 1:
RHP Zac Gallen, Arizona (2-0, 3.18 ERA) - RHP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia (1-0, 2.08 ERA)
Game 2:
RHP Merrill Kelly, Arizona (1-0, 0.00 ERA) - RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia (2-0, 1.42 ERA)
While both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have been great in the postseason for the D-Backs, you have admit that the Phillies have the edge in the pitching matchup department through the first two games of the NLCS. And, if Ranger Suárez goes in Game 3 and pitches as well as he did in both of his starts in the NLDS, then they have an advantage the rest of the way in this series too.
NLCS X-Factors
Let’s take a look at a key player for both teams…
Arizona Diamondbacks X-Factor - Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll had already introduced himself to the baseball world as a huge star. Only now he’s doing it on the biggest stage possible. The phenom outfielder has been red-hot so far this postseason, which his stellar 1.389 OPS proves. Carroll really drives this offense and he’s going to need another big series, both at the plate and on the base paths with his speed, if the Diamondbacks are to maintain their insane offensive prowess in October.
Philadelphia Phillies X-Factor - Bryce Harper
Sometimes you just need to go down the obvious route and not be too cute. Why wouldn’t Postseason Bryce Harper be the X-Factor for the Phillies in this series? His playoff resume speaks for itself and he always finds a way to deliver in the biggest moments in October. Harper boasts a stellar 1.017 OPS in 42 career postseason games, and he just has ice in his veins when it comes to this time of year. Just as he did in the NLDS with a couple of clutch homers, I fully expect Harper to put this team on his back and lead them to the promised land. After all, Bryce Harper is the guy you want in nut crunch time. No doubt.
Enjoy tonight’s two Championship Series games!
I’ll be back on Tuesday with a recap of Game 2 in the ALCS and Game 1 in the NLCS, as well as previewing Game 2 between the D-Backs and the Phillies.
See you then!
