Some Quick Mets Thoughts On Opening Day
The Amazins' get their 2024 season underway against the Brewers on Friday...
Opening Day 2024 is in the books and it was quite the exhilarating thrill ride from start to finish.
Corbin Burnes and the Baltimore Orioles flexed and then some against the Angels at Camden Yards, in a game which also saw a fully healthy Mike Trout go yard. The new Big Three of the Dodgers lived up to that billing with a dominant day at the plate against the Cardinals. Juan Soto wasted little time in proving his worth to the Yankees with some late-game heroics in the field to help beat the Astros in Houston. The Padres and the Pirates both staged dramatic comebacks late. The Rangers began their World Series defense in breathtaking fashion by walking it off against the Cubs. And the Diamondbacks made an early statement as to why we shouldn’t bet against them again in 2024 by piling on 13 - yes, 13 - runs in one single inning against the Rockies en-route to an easy 16-1 dismantling.
I was in euphoric heaven as I consumed 13 or so hours of Opening Day baseball from start to finish, and I’m still sporting a stupidly-wide smile at the thought that we now have the greatest game on the planet back in our lives every single day for the next several months.
Now, I plan to pen some deeper thoughts on Opening Day later this weekend, but I’m holding off on that for now because four teams have yet to play. Those teams being the Mets, Brewers, Braves and the Phillies. Both the Mets and the Phillies had their Opening Day games rained out on Thursday, meaning they will instead begin their respective 2024 seasons on Friday.
And that brings me to the point of today’s newsletter.
Given that I cover the Mets for a couple of outlets - check out my work at Metsmerized and Just Mets, two outstanding sites for all Mets fans - I tend to stay away from Met-centric content in this space. You know, out of fear of repeating myself in multiple outlets which I do enough of anyway.
However, given that today is Opening Day for the New York Metropolitans, I thought now would be the perfect time to break my own rule and share some quick Mets thoughts with you all.
Let’s do it…
Monster Year Incoming
I know no Mets fans want to hear this, but this could well be Pete Alonso’s last Opening Day in a Mets uniform.
Set to hit Free Agency after this season, the three-time All-Star will be one of the best players available on the open market and, until he has signed on the dotted line with the Mets, you can’t rule out that he could end up spending the rest of his career elsewhere.
That’s just reality right now and, unfortunately, it is a grim reality that will hang over this franchise all year. Unless, of course, ownership, the front office and Alonso can come to some kind of agreement before and sign a long-term extension that will make all of that noise go away overnight. However, given that Alonso’s agent is the infamous, hard-assed Scott Boras, I can’t see that happening.
In any case, the spotlight will be on Alonso for a multitude of reasons throughout 2024, but I expect him to deliver. Currently on pace to finish as the best hitter in franchise history, Alonso has hit at least 35 homers in every full season he’s played in the majors. He blasted 46 in 2023 - his highest total since hitting 53 in his rookie year in 2019 - and I fully expect the slugger to surpass 50 homers in 2024.
After ending last year with a 22.9% K rate, Alonso has been working on his mechanics with the goal of improving his chase rate. If those changes and tweaks prove fruitful, then I can see Alonso having an absolute monster of the year at the plate in which his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS rates all go up. If that happens, and if the righty bat hits anywhere between 40-50 homers, then that will be very good for his value on the open market and also very good for the Mets’ chances of making the postseason in 2024.
Because, it goes without saying, if the Mets are to have any chance of competing for a Wild Card spot this year, then they will need Alonso to mash at a crazy clip while putting the ball in play and getting on base at a high level. Having J.D Martinez in the lineup will certainly help.
Time For Action
For those who cover the Mets on a daily basis, getting to Opening Day will be a relief given that now we can stop with the talking and let actions lead.
Okay, so we’ll still do plenty of talking because that’s our job, but it is now time for the team to let their actions do the talking on the field.
Friday will mark a new era for this organization with owner Steve Cohen having finally landed his big white whale in David Stearns to lead the show as president of baseball operations. Stearns in turn then hired former Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as the team’s new manager, replacing the outgoing Buck Showalter.
Having opted for the biggest pivot of all time at last year’s Trade Deadline - selling off a slew of key veteran pieces in order to rebuild the farm system - Stearns was brought in to create some real sustainability and the train of thought has always been that 2024 would be a transitional year for the franchise. However, both Cohen and Stearns have been consistent in making clear that not making the playoffs this year would be a disappointment.
Adding a proven DH in J.D. Martinez raises the ceiling for this team considerably - although Martinez will spend the first week or so of the season ramping up in the minors given how late into the offseason he signed - but there are still a plethora of question marks hovering over this team. Most notably, the starting rotation is full of ifs and buts and it remains to be seen if Brett Baty is the long-term answer at third base. It is anyone’s guess as to how much Starling Marte has left in the tank, although he does look healthy which is the main thing, while I think Jeff McNeil’s left shoulder could be a real wild card this year. I’m not totally sold on the bottom of the lineup, and I worry about that bullpen if they are taxed too much too early because of the shortcomings of the rotation.
But, with all that being said, that’s the beautiful thing about Opening Day. We can stop playing the pointless guessing games and instead let things play out as they are intended to. Friday will be our first meaningful look at this team in a game that actually counts, and I’m intrigued to see how everything shakes out. My expectations are low for this team, and I do believe the floor is higher than the ceiling, but I’m ready to be proved wrong. Anything can happen over a grueling marathon of a 162-game season.
I’m just happy that we can now see what the 2024 Mets are capable of for real.
Leadership Qualities
It wasn’t all that long ago that people were lining up ready to declare Francisco Lindor an all-time bust after just one season in Queens.
Lindor’s debut season with the Mets in 2021 didn’t go to plan in any way, shape or form, but the turnaround since has been nothing short of spectacular.
The four-time All-Star has developed not just into a star for this franchise, but also as a legitimate, highly-respected leader too. Lindor is loved both in the clubhouse and throughout the organization, and his leadership skills have been on display throughout spring training.
Lindor understands what the front office is trying to do and he knows that this season could be one that features more crushing lows than euphoric highs. However, he’s leading from the front by saying all the right things while taking on a mentor role for some of the younger players in the organization.
And, coming off a 30-30 season in 2023, while also producing the ninth-highest positional WAR, Lindor is going to be as important on the diamond for the Mets as he will be off it. If you ask me, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the straw that stirs the drink for this entire Mets team.
Sound The Trumpets
The bullpen was a hot mess for the Mets in 2023 - a 4.45 ERA, which ranked in the bottom-half of teams - and that was largely because Edwin Díaz was unavailable.
One of the best closers in the game, Díaz missed all of last year after tearing his patellar tendon in his right knee while celebrating a victory for Puerto Rico at the World Baseball Classic. That was a body blow the Mets never truly recovered from.
The good news is that Díaz is back and he looked pretty damn good in spring training, posting a 2.45 ERA in 3 2/3 innings pitched. Of course, pitching well in spring is one thing, it is another thing to hit the ground running from the very get-go in the regular season and maintain that over a 162-game marathon. We need to be prepared for some rough moments given that the righty hasn’t pitched in a game that matters in over a year.
However, those packed inside Citi Field on Friday will go nuts once they hear the now iconic sounds of the trumpets for the first time in 2024 as Díaz makes his way to the mound. That will be a really cool experience for everyone inside and outside of the ballpark.
Second Act
Luis Severino ended up with the Mets on a one-year, $13 million deal this offseason because his once promising career with the Yankees flamed out. The right-handed pitcher hasn’t been able to stay healthy the past couple of years and, when he has been on the mound, he’s struggled.
However, punch up clips of Severino pitching in 2017 and 2018 and you will quickly see why he was once in the conversation as being one of the best pitchers in New York alongside Jacob deGrom. When healthy, and with his filthy stuff working, Severino can be elite and that tantalizing upside was on full display throughout spring training.
Severino pitched to a stellar 1.29 ERA in 14 innings, allowing just two earned runs on nine hits and striking out 12. Now, again, you can’t get too carried away with whatever you see in spring, but it was encouraging to say the least.
If the Mets can get the spring - and indeed the 2017 and ‘18 versions of Severino - throughout 2024, then the overall ceiling will be raised considerably higher. Until Kodai Senga is back, the Mets need somebody in that rotation to step up and perform above expectations, and that could be Severino based on what we’ve seen from the two-time All-Star so far.
If he can stay healthy and maintain his velocity and command, then Severino could be the ultimate X-Factor for the Mets in 2024.
Some Other Quick Musings
This entire year will hinge on when Kodai Senga can get back and, when he is back, how healthy and effective he is. If he can return by June and is as effective as he was in his rookie year, then the outlook remains bright for the Mets. If not, then I don’t think they have a shot at making the playoffs.
I also think their floor lowers if both Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte can’t carve out bounce-back years. If both players struggle as they did in 2023, then this offense is going to have a lot of bad days at the office.
I’m intrigued to see how José Quintana performs on Opening Day. The veteran has always been a solid, reliable, go-to guy in the rotation, but fronting a rotation is a different ask altogether. Quintana endured an up-and-down spring, including a nightmare last start in which he allowed five runs and four walks. Let’s hope we see the Quintana that was so reliable in the back-half of 2023 on Friday.
With Harrison Bader now in the picture, and Brandon Nimmo in left field, I think the Mets are going to be a lot better defensively in 2024. They are certainly going to be a lot of fun to watch given the athleticism that will be on display.
Francisco Álvarez led MLB in runners caught stealing with eight in spring training. No other catcher had more than five. Álvarez has worked on his mechanics and his strong arm is now blossoming. With a big spring at the plate too, I fully expect the catcher to post career-highs across the board in his second year and be a big-time producer for this team.
Final thought. Not a Mets-related note but, with the Brewers in town, I’m really excited to see how No. 2 prospect in baseball Jackson Chourio gets on during his first series as a big league player. The outfielder will lead off for the Brewers on Friday, and he was a hell of a fun player to watch in the minors. I’m going to be keeping an eye on Chourio and what he does at the plate and in the field throughout this opening series for the Mets.
Enjoy Opening Day, Mets fans!