AFC Championship Game Preview
Some quick thoughts, a couple of stats and my player to watch ahead of a titanic showdown at Arrowhead...
I’ve been way too engrossed in the Commanders - Eagles game that I’ve totally neglected this AFC Championship Game primer.
By the way, not too late to check out my thoughts on the NFC Championship Game, as well as my prediction (spoiler alert: it isn’t going so well):
NFC Championship Game Preview
The journey to Super Bowl LIX is almost complete with four teams left standing.
Anyway, thanks to my own self-procrastinating, I’m running behind so I’m going to pump out some thoughts on the final game of today as quickly as I can.
It goes without saying that Bills - Chiefs has all the makings to be an all-time doozy, and I do wonder if Kansas City is going to be playing with a little extra motivation in the wake of Saturday’s social media shitstorm.
If you missed it, ESPN Senior NFL Insider Adam Schefter wrote an article on Saturday, detailing how NFL replay assist is expected to expand this offseason into plays that could include the quarterback slide. Okay, fine. However, the reason why so many people got bent out of shape over that article was because Schefter framed the entire piece exclusively around Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Now, that’s a problem because the narrative on social media is that Mahomes flops and gets too many calls. But that’s on social media, which is full of pissed off fans who are jealous of the Chiefs. The reality is, and a lot of different people have broken this down, all of the calls Mahomes has received in the postseason have been legit. Just go and look at the video evidence.
Plus, the whole narrative that officials are bending over backwards to help the Chiefs is just insane, stupid and, more importantly, unfounded. It is just a silly narrative, and we lived through the same crap with the Patriots. We’re also living it right now in baseball with the Dodgers, who are being accused of being bad for baseball just because they’ve built a star-laden roster and an organization that’s built to win year after year after year. The simple fact is people are jealous of Kansas City’s success, and the way people fuel that jealousy these days is to throw conspiracy theories out there.
The whole thing is just silly. The Chiefs have enjoyed unprecedented success because they are a damn good football team, they are incredibly well-coached and they have one of the most talented quarterbacks to have ever lived leading that team. It isn’t because it has been handed to them on a silver platter by the league.
Let’s just stop with the nonsense, please.
Anyway, Schefter’s questionable decision to single out Mahomes specifically no doubt didn’t go down very well in Kansas City, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Arrowhead is even more of a zoo tonight with everyone in that building now playing with an even bigger chip on their shoulders.
As if the reigning two-time Super Bowl champions needed any more of an edge.
It is hard to bet against the Chiefs since they’ve been here so many times before, and they know what it takes to win this time of year. They are gunning to become just the fourth team in NFL history to make three Super Bowl appearances in a row (1971-73 Dolphins, 1990-93 Bills (4 in a row), 2016-18 Patriots), and the first team in history to win three Super Bowl titles in a row.
At this point, it is foolish to go against Kansas City.
And the Chiefs should feel extra-confident going into tonight’s game after receiving a vintage performance from Travis Kelce last weekend. The tight end rolled back the years to erupt for 117 yards and a touchdown on seven catches against the Texans. However, on the flipside, Mahomes passed for just 177 yards and a touchdown in that win, while all of his weapons outside of Kelce were all but silenced. Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, Kareem Hunt, Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster combined for just nine catches and 60 yards, with the latter three players all going without a catch.
So, it goes without saying that others will need to step up for Kansas City besides Kelce. With that said, however, Mahomes is 3-0 against the Bills in the postseason, completing 75% of his passes with a 95 total QBR and zero interceptions thrown in that span. And, when you consider that the Chiefs defense held opponents to just 19.2 points per game during the regular season - the fourth-lowest mark in the league - it becomes harder and harder to envision a world in which Mahomes and Kansas City aren’t heading back to the Super Bowl. Again.
But, the reason why my gut tells me that the bid for an incredibly rare three-peat will end tonight is because of Josh Allen.
The man who should be crowned MVP has been playing Superman ball all year, and I have a feeling he’s going to deliver the biggest statement game of his career to date at Arrowhead on Sunday night. I just feel it in my bones.
Allen has willed his team to victory so many times this season, putting them on his back and dragging them across the finishing line. He’s come up with clutch play after clutch play in the biggest moments, and I think he’s more prepared than ever to slay the dragon that is Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The Bills also have the advantage of having a much more diverse offense, a unit that ranked second in scoring during the regular season after averaging 30.9 points per game. Allen has a slew of different weapons to go to, and that should help to keep Kansas City’s defense guessing on Sunday night. When you also throw into the pot the fact that Buffalo owned a league-best plus-24 turnover differential during the regular season, coupled with a plus-3 differential so far in the postseason, then there are plenty of reasons to believe that the Bills are better equipped now to get over the hump as opposed to previous years.
Allen needs to beat the Chiefs and lead the Bills to a Super Bowl in order to cement his legacy. Going into Arrowhead and ruining Kansas City’s dreams of a three-peat would be quite the way to do it.
And, if anyone can produce the kind of hero-ball needed to finally take down Mahomes, it is Allen.
Prediction: BILLS OVER Chiefs
Key Stat: The Bills have averaged 29 points per game this postseason, making them the most potent AFC team in the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are allowing just 14 points per game in the postseason. Something will have to give on Sunday night.
Stat I Love: Both teams have been turnover machines this year, but the Chiefs haven’t turned the ball over since Week 11, while they’ve forced 11 opponent turnovers with zero fumbles or interceptions of their own in that span. And, dating back to 2019, Kansas City has won 37 straight games when winning the turnover battle. So, yes, playing a clean game will be absolutely critical for both teams.
Player To Watch: Amari Cooper hasn’t produced all that much since being acquired by the Bills, but he was brought in for nights like tonight. If the Bills are to finally take down the Chiefs, Allen is going to need a weapon to come up with multiple monster plays in clutch moments, and Cooper has the talent and the skillset to be that guy.