NFL Divisional Weekend Bacchanal Part Two!
Thoughts, predictions and players to watch from Sunday's two Divisional Round matchups...
It is time for the second installment of my Divisional Round Weekend preview ahead of the final two games on Sunday.
You can check out Part 1 - which covers the two Divisional matchups on Saturday - by clicking the link below:
Given the marquee matchups we have lined up on Sunday, I fully expect the second day of Divisional Round Weekend to be an all-timer.
Without wasting any more time, let’s get this show on the road…
NFC No. 4 Rams at No. 2 Eagles
I teased this in Part One and I’ll deliver the payoff here: If the Rams beat the Eagles on Sunday, it shouldn’t be considered an upset.
If you are operating under the assumption that the Eagles are the better team out of the two on Sunday just because they own the better record, and because they beat up on LA during the regular season, you are either a fool or you don’t know football. Or both.
That may sound strong and, to be honest, I don’t even care if that offends some people. I believe strongly in the notion that the postseason is an entirely new and different ballgame and the Rams are built for this stage. Hey, I’ll eat my humble pie if Philadelphia does indeed move on, but I’ve always followed and trusted my gut, and my gut tells me that LA is going to ride this wave of momentum they’ve built towards a huge win on Sunday.
Yes, it is true that the Eagles ran roughshod over the Rams when these teams did battle in Week 12. Literally. Saquon Barkley racked up a franchise-record 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries in a dominant 37-20 win. Barkley and Jalen Hurts - who posted career-highs in completion percentage (68.7) and passer rating (103.7) during the regular season - balled out in Week 12 and they bullied an embarrassingly-weak Rams defense. However, a lot has changed since then. The defensive unit we’re going to see on Sunday is a lot different to the one that imploded in Week 12. In the seven games since that beatdown, LA’s defense has allowed an average of just 104.1 rushing yards and 17 points. That includes a nine-sack game against the Vikings in the Wild Card Round.
Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula dialed up an absolute masterclass against Minnesota, and he will no doubt have gleaned important lessons from that Week 12 humbling against Philly. Look, you can’t stop Barkley. You just can’t. The stud running back, who put together a regular season for the ages with 2,005 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, is going to feast and put up big numbers. The Rams are just going to have to limit the damage elsewhere, and hope that they can contain Barkley enough to give their offense a chance.
Let’s talk about that offense. Matthew Stafford is why I’m so confident the Rams will advance to the NFC Championship Game. He’s built for this time of year. Okay, sure, he was hit 11 times and sacked five times by the Eagles defense in Week 12. Even then, he still threw two touchdown passes and no interceptions. More importantly, Stafford is the very definition of delivering your best when your best matters the most. If you want proof to back up that statement, here you go: Matthew Stafford is 19-3 with the Rams in December, January and February games. That includes a Super Bowl win, too.
So, yes, when the stakes are at their highest and the stage is at its biggest, Stafford finds a way to deliver almost every time.
Okay, at this point I’ll admit I may be a little biased given that I am the founder of the Matthew Stafford fan club. He is criminally underrated and is one of the toughest dudes to have ever played the position of quarterback in pro football. Just look at the all punishment he had to absorb and endure while in Detroit. But, outside of that, Stafford is damn talented and his wizardry at the QB position is slept on too much. I mean, the man was throwing beautiful spirals and making the no-look pass look uber-cool before Patrick Mahomes was even a thought in the minds of NFL fans and executives. Stafford has been doing special things for quite some time, and he’s truly at his apex when the lights get bright and the games become even more meaningful. His career 103.0 passer rating - which is the 4th best mark among quarterbacks in the playoffs in NFL history - is further proof.
Now, I’m sure some will point to Stafford’s 1-8 record in rain / snow games as a major factor given that it is currently snowing in Philadelphia. But I’ll pushback on that because this is the postseason and, as already mentioned, he knows how to get the job done this time of year. Furthermore, he has one of the best and most innovative Head Coaches in the league in Sean McVay on his side, as well as three elite weapons in running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. McVay’s decision to rest his key guys in Week 18 against Seattle puzzled many at the time given that LA needed that game for seeding but, in actuality, it proved to be a masterstroke because, when healthy, this Rams offense led by the swashbuckling Stafford can match up against any team in football.
Prediction: RAMS over Eagles
Key Stat: The Eagles are 3-4 when they attempt more than 25 passes. That’s important because if the Rams can contain Saquon Barkley and force Jalen Hurts to throw the pigskin a hell of a lot, then that could be their biggest key to winning this NFC Divisional Round matchup.
Player To Watch: Rookie outsider linebacker Jared Verse - who comes in at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds - had himself a day against the Vikings, playing a major role in that defense sacking Sam Darnold nine times. He will need to be even better on Sunday by getting to Hurts and trying to limit Barkley. If he can tick both of those boxes, then the Rams’ odds of reaching the final four will increase greatly.
AFC No. 3 Ravens at No. 2 Bills
Talk about an all-time doozy. The best may well be saved for last on Divisional Round Weekend with two MVP candidates set to face-off in Buffalo.
Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen could end up being the showdown of the entire year.
These two quarterback savants have been playing in a totally different stratosphere. The end result is the closest and arguably most compelling MVP race we’ve had for quite some time.
At first glance, Jackson is probably deserving of that crown. After all, he has carved out an all-time majestic year with 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, just four interceptions and a passer rating of 119.6, which led the entire NFL. If that wasn’t impressive enough, the four-time Pro Bowler also rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to accumulate 4,000 plus passing yards and 900 plus rushing yards in the same season.
By comparison, Allen passed for 3,731 yards and tossed 28 touchdowns with six interceptions. He also racked up 531 rushing yards with 12 touchdowns. However, this is where the numbers sometimes lie. While Jackson has the greater stats, he also has the luxury of having one of the best running backs in the game in Derrick Henry at his disposable, in addition to some other notable weapons. The same can’t be said for Allen, who has had to work with a rag-tag bunch of receivers for the most part this year. Amari Cooper - a midseason trade acquisition - is arguably the pick of the bunch but he’s missed time with injury and has hardly been a standout performer. It is also important to note that Allen led Buffalo to the better record during the regular season.
If I had a vote, I’d be voting for Allen. I think you have to consider more than just the numbers when it comes to the MVP of the entire league, and Allen has had more signature game-changing plays this season, while also playing the best football of his career without having a standout offensive weapon. That fact alone can’t be overlooked in the overall MVP argument. And I’m not trying to take anything away from the truly historic year Jackson put together. Truly I’m not. I just personally believe that Allen was more valuable to his team in 2024. If Jackson would have missed a handful of games during the regular season, I still think the Ravens would have stayed alive because of the fact they have Henry and other reliable weapons. However, if Allen wasn’t available for a stretch, it is fair to assume the Bills would have sank.
Of course, both Allen and Jackson would be quick to stress that individual accolades matter very little when compared to what is on the line in Sunday’s blockbuster headline act. Both Allen and Jackson are chasing their first Super Bowl, and whoever loses out on Sunday may well end up winning the MVP, but they will do so with a dent in their legacy too.
Both players were at their apex throughout the regular season but, in today’s game, true greatness is measured by championships, banners and rings.
It is long overdue time for one of these quarterbacks to cement their legacy with a Super Bowl win this year.
So, who will it be? Well, Ravens fans will no doubt be hoping for a similar outcome to what happened when these teams met in Week 4. Baltimore pummeled Buffalo 35-10 thanks to two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown from Jackson, in addition to 199 rushing yards and a touchdown from Henry. But, as was the case when the Eagles and the Rams met during the regular meeting, you can’t really rely too much on that meeting when trying to get a good read of Sunday’s game. Firstly, the Bills were missing Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson, in addition to other key defensive starters, in that Week 4 loss. All three will be available to play on Sunday. And, since Milano returned in Week 13, the Bills own the NFL’s 10th-best rush defense by EPA per snap.
When you consider that we’re likely to be treated to a snow game in Buffalo, with temperatures well below freezing, I think the Bills will be much better equipped to handle Jackson, Henry and Baltimore’s dynamic and explosive run game this time around. And that could be key to winning the game. As will probably Allen, who has shown time and time again this year alone that, when the pressure is at its highest, he’s able to put his team on his back and drag them across the finish line.
Prediction: BILLS over Ravens
Key Stat: Baltimore ran for an NFL-leading 5.8 yards per carry during the regular season, while Henry ripped off 1,921 yards with 16 touchdowns in the regular season. If the Ravens can get their formidable run game going in the snow, they should be able to dictate the tempo from the get-go.
Player To Watch: This is an obvious pick, I know, but sometimes you just don’t need to overcomplicate things. If the Bills are to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2020, they will do so on the large shoulders of their all-conquering quarterback in Josh Allen. The MVP hopeful is a master at playing hero ball, and he’s played the role of Superman to perfection time and time again this year. Don’t be surprised if he does it in the biggest moments of Sunday’s game to lead the Bills another step closer to the Super Bowl.
Enjoy a truly mouthwatering feast of football this weekend, everyone!
The Divisional Round really is the best weekend of the entire NFL season, and I think we’re going to get another reminder of why over these next couple of days.
Grab a cold one, stock up on snacks and don’t leave your couch.